2024-25 Championship predictions: 1st-12th
Half of an attempt to predict the notoriously unpredictable Championship
Our assessment of the bottom half can be found here.
1st: Leeds United
May’s Wembley defeat gave Leeds the dubious honour of being the first Championship team to win 90 points and fail to go up since the division’s rebrand in 2004. In a league which is unlikely to be as top-heavy, the Elland Road outfit start from a good place.
The talented Archie Gray has gone, yet the £40m fee received for the 18-year-old was more a reflection of his potential than his short-term importance to Leeds. In the present, new boy Jayden Bogle arguably offers more at right-back. Joe Rodon’s permanent arrival and the return of Max Wober gives boss Daniel Farke a reliable centre-back pairing. In turn, this should facilitate new club captain Ethan Ampadu’s move into his preferred midfield role, although a more progressive partner for him still needs to be found.
Up front, Matteo Joseph has been given opportunities in pre-season and should press from the front better than the one-dimensional Joel Piroe, who often operated in the same areas as Georginio Rutter. Crysencio Summerville’s move to West Ham is a blow, but Willy Gnonto can fill the void on his preferred left-side if he replicates his form from two years ago.
Despite accumulating 90+ points in his each of his previous three Championship seasons, Farke has a tendency to rely on individual brilliance in the final third. No team attacked down the left flank more than Leeds last season, with the gameplan often being to give it to Summerville and hope for a moment of magic. Similarly, the head coach’s lack of rotation was a big contributing factor in key players appearing unfit during the run-in. These limitations worry Leeds fans, however Farke being in his second season could be a blessing in disguise. If Leeds start poorly, it won’t take much to make a change in the dugout and a title charge would still be on the cards.
2nd: Coventry City
Coventry’s slow start last season was not a surprise. In Gus Hamer and Viktor Gyokeres, they had lost their two key men, meanwhile other first team regulars who had already over-performed in their run to the 2023 play-off final, couldn’t step up in their absence. Bedding in £20m worth of new recruits was a mammoth task and early results were inconsistent.
Manager Mark Robins’ mid-season shift to a 4-2-3-1 led to a significant improvement. Record signing Haji Wright was moved out to the left flank and allowed the previously-misfiring Ellis Simms the space to lead the line alone. On the right, Milan Van Ewijk and Tatsuhiro Sakamoto formed a nice partnership and Viktor Torp arrived in January to strengthen the midfield too. Had springtime FA Cup heroics not taken precedence, the Sky Blues may have broken into the top six rather than finishing 9th.
With the bulk of a promotion-chasing side already in place, this summer’s focus has been on adding the finishing touches. Jack Rudoni is a smart replacement for Callum O’Hare. The attacking midfielder, who has spent the last two seasons battling relegation with Huddersfield, looks after the ball well and should facilitate the counter-attacking threat of Wright. In goal, Oliver Dovin will probably claim the shirt, after neither Ben Wilson nor Brad Collins truly convinced last term.
Coventry’s work in the transfer market is not done yet. They must resist Premier League interest in tenacious midfielder Ben Sheaf and their left-back options probably aren’t enough either. The Sky Blues only signed two loanees last year as they looked to develop their own assets, so a temporary fix in this position could be the way forward. Even clubs with parachute payments are increasingly dependent on borrowing Premier League talent, so it is important that this market is not overlooked.
The aim of last season was to reduce the reliance on individuals and raise the overall level of the squad. Having done that, a promotion push is on the cards. With a balanced squad, an intelligent recruitment team and a top manager, Coventry could upset the established order.
3rd: Burnley
A year ago, Burnley were tipped by many to ride the wave of their Championship title win and make a splash in the Premier League. Instead, some poor recruitment and Vincent Kompany’s inability to implement his possession-heavy approach at the top level meant they never looked like staying up. Kompany has left for Bayern Munich and Scott Parker is an intriguing pick as his replacement. On paper, it makes sense; he has two Championship promotions on his CV by getting exceptional squads to perform at par. If he repeats the trick at Turf Moor, he’ll have a third.
Beyond the headline, appointing a pragmatist to oversee a young, technical squad feels like an overcorrection for Kompany’s unwillingness to adapt in the Premier League. It’s hard to make a case that Parker has been employed with a view to keeping Burnley in the top flight if they get there either, given his record with Fulham and Bourenmouth at that level.
The Clarets have an outrageous amount of talent on their books. Mike Tresor, Wilson Odobert, Luca Koleosho and Manuel Benson are an outstanding set of wide options, meanwhile even their reserve back four is top six standard. Lyle Foster and Andreas Houtondji are unproven but will provide a physical presence up top that was absent last season. Parker likes to work with large squads, so this task won’t faze him. However, the Burnley dressing room includes many of the Championship-conquering side who were unfairly cast aside by Kompany in the Premier League, so the new boss’s man-management will need to be impeccable to keep them onside.
Burnley could quite easily blitz the division with a three-figure points total, just as they did two years ago. The players are there to do it but with doubts over the manager and a bloated squad, they may have to settle for the play-offs instead.
4th: Middlesbrough
Like Coventry, Middlesbrough are in a stronger position than last year, despite missing out on the play-offs. They own their best players and after a slow start, showed real promise. Emmanuel Latte Lath and Rav Van Den Berg ended the season brilliantly and should kick on further.
Business so far has been generally positive. The tenacity of Aidan Morris should transform a Boro side that was very passive out of possession and allow Hayden Hackney to focus on dictating play. Playing in a better side may help to iron out Delano Burgzorg’s selfish streak and if so, the Dutchman’s unpredictable dribbling will be an asset. Luke Ayling’s permanent arrival is less promising - as a 32-year-old whose game relies heavily on stamina and athleticism, he may struggle to replicate the excellent form he showed on loan last season. If he cannot produce the goods, Lukas Engel will need to provide an attacking thrust from left back that he has so far only shown in flashes. Rumoured interest in bringing Ryan Giles back to the Riverside implies that steps are being taken to mitigate against this.
Boro were also victims of circumstance last season; specifically a horrific injury crisis, which is unlikely to repeat itself. This, and the lack of squad turnover, should set things up nicely for Michael Carrick. The head coach now has a great opportunity to live up to the hype and deliver promotion in a weaker division.
5th: Luton Town
Luton Town are back after one year in the top flight. They haven’t made many moves in the transfer market because they did most of their dealings twelve months ahead of time; almost all of last summer’s arrivals were plucked from the Championship in preparation for their probable return to the level. Whilst it’s true the Hatters recruited good second tier players rather than elite ones, the Premier League experience has elevated the likes of Chiedozie Ogbene and Tahith Chong above their previous levels.
The biggest change for Rob Edwards’ men will be adjusting to not being the underdogs - even in their promotion campaign, they ranked 18th for possession. They will be afforded more respect this time, which makes finding a technical midfielder who can control proceedings incredibly important. Another centre-back should be on the list too, given the fitness concerns surrounding many of their existing defenders.
If both players remain at the club, the Alfie Doughty-Elijah Adebayo partnership will be a reliable source of goals. Even if Adebayo moves elsewhere, Carlton Morris probably won’t so Luton are guaranteed to be physical up front. The aforementioned Chong and Ogbene will contribute massively and returning loanee Joe Taylor will add a different dimension to the forward line.
The squad continuity and Edwards’ managerial nous make Luton worthy contenders in the play-off picture, at least. If they can continue to produce the goods against a backdrop of raised expectations, there is no reason why they cannot go further and challenge for the top two.
6th: Sunderland
Sunderland’s season never really recovered from the harsh dismissal of Tony Mowbray in December. After the disastrous Mick Beale experiment was cut short in February, the Black Cats’ young guns were left directionless with no permanent head coach and results suffered.
A 16th placed finish would indicate that a top six tilt this time is a pipe dream, but Regis Le Bris arrives from France with a reputation for developing young talent, so should be an excellent fit. The likes of Dan Neil, Jobe Bellingham and Trai Hume all now have two seasons of Championship football under their belts, whilst still being some way from their peak. In Pierre Ekwah and Patrick Roberts, the squad also contains players who under-performed in an unstable environment but showed their quality in the previous campaign. If given the correct guidance by Le Bris, there is potential for serious improvement.
In the last two transfer windows, Sunderland’s recruitment team came under fire for failing to offer competitive wages and bring in seasoned Championship operators to compliment their prospects. The shrewd capture of Preston captain Alan Browne is a sign that they are willing to tweak their approach. Heavy links to 30-year-old Caen forward Alexandre Mendy are further evidence of this and if signed, the Ligue 2 golden boot holder should reduce the reliance on Jack Clarke for goals.
Clarke’s uncertain future is the most compelling argument against backing Sunderland because the team’s form nosedived in his absence. However, a highly-rated coach, a squad which is a year older, and £20m in the bank should be enough to make up for his departure in any case.
7th: Norwich City
The general consensus among Norwich fans is that they reached the play-offs despite David Wagner, rather than because of him. Selecting 35-year-old Johannes Hoff Thorup as his replacement in the dugout is a gamble, but one that most Canaries are happy to take.
The young Danish coach will have to cope without assist machine Gabriel Sara, who is close to joining Galatasaray, but most of the other star names should stick around. Strict PSR limits in and the striker’s injury record will probably deter Premier League clubs from taking a gamble on Josh Sargent, which is good news for Thorup. He can utilise returning loanees too. Dribbly winger Abu Kamara stood out in Portsmouth’s title win and Adam Idah could kickstart his Norwich career again after three months at Celtic. The academy graduate has some great physical attributes and should finally get the chance to work under a coach with a reputation for player development. Convincing him to stick around may prove tricky though.
Persistent links to Callum Doyle suggest that Thorup is looking for a defensively-minded left back who can drop into a back three. Doyle’s move is not confirmed but whoever comes in, they should provide a more balanced full-back pairing with Jack Stacey. Unlike last season, the ex-Bournemouth man can focus on bombing forward to support the attack without worrying about the positionally-suspect Sam McCallum leaving the Canaries open on the other side.
Sara’s exit leaves a creative void that still hasn’t been filled and given Jonny Rowe’s tendency to go missing in games, his output is likely to drop too. This necessitates the need for another attacking midfielder to come in and for new set piece coach Nick Stanley to match the achievements of his predecessor Andrew Hughes. However, the likely improvement of existing attacking players and a sturdier defensive setup should keep the Canaries in the playoff hunt.
8th: Sheffield United
Business at Bramall Lane has been surprisingly sensible, especially compared with the shambles of last summer which left Sheffield United doomed to relegation before a ball was kicked.
Mike Cooper, a future Premier League goalkeeper who is undervalued in the market due to two recent injuries, appears likely to join from Plymouth Argyle. Of the completed business, Callum O’Hare is superb at linking midfield and attack. Elsewhere, Harrison Burrows and rumoured addition Ki-Jana Hoever are a quality, if not necessarily balanced, set of full-backs. In particular, the signing of 22-year-old ex-Peterborough captain Burrow fulfils the dual objective of injecting leadership while lowering the average age of the squad during a window that has seen many veterans of the 2018-2020 glory era depart the club. The dependable Kieffer Moore appears a good bet to end Chris Wilder’s striker curse too.
The Blades still require midfield reinforcements, ideally of a higher quality and with more physicality than trialist Andre Dozzell. Further improvements are needed at centre-back too, after leaking an eye-watering 104 goals in the Premier League.
Bizarrely for a manager in his second spell with the club, Wilder remains the biggest unknown at Sheffield United. The lack of impact in his last three jobs can all be explained away individually but put together, it is easy to make the case that the 56-year-old is past his best. Perhaps an early change will be required for an immediate return to the top flight?
9th: Swansea City
Luke Williams has made a solid start in SA1, mixing principles of the ‘Swansea Way’ with solid foundations at the back. A record of just eight goals conceded in the final ten games showed progression from the tactical naivety he displayed during his first month as head coach.
Loanees Carl Rushworth and Jamal Lowe will be missed, but while Swansea’s squad may not possess more quality than a year ago, it is more dynamic. In Eom Ji-Sung and January arrival Ronald, Williams finally has some one-on-one dribblers in his ranks to pose a different question when Swans cannot pass through their opponents. With the two Joshes - Tymon and Key - behind them, the wide areas are strong. In midfield, tough-tackling maverick Goncalo Franco should prove a better foil for playmaker Matt Grimes than the talented but lightweight Charlie Patino.
Swans fans were growing frustrated at the lack of a striker until signing Zan Vipotnik from crisis club Bordeaux in early August. With goalscoring midfielders thin on the ground, the Slovenian international will need to get up to speed quickly and 10 strikes in Ligue 2 last season wasn’t an outstanding tally. Nevertheless, his physicality and long-range shooting are attributes that Williams’ side desperately need. A top ten spot would represent progress and should be well within reach.
10th: Bristol City
Bristol City have now spent nine consecutive years in the Championship without ever reaching the top six or being seriously threatened by the prospect of relegation. The Robins’ latest mid-table finish was more intriguing than usual though, as they beat promoted Southampton and Leicester whilst struggling to kill off inferior opponents. After a steady start, Liam Manning’s next task is to exert more control in games and City’s squad will benefit from a full season with their details-orientated head coach.
Deep-lying playmaker Max Bird is a welcome addition who will slot nicely into the midfield alongside his former Derby teammate Jason Knight. The signings of 6ft4in striker Fally Mayulu and Japanese winger Yu Hirakawa are interesting and demonstrate that Manning is rightly focused on boosting his attacking options. Sinclair Armstrong, signed from QPR, will be a fascinating watch. The muscular forward was one of the Championship’s worst finishers last season but his pace and relentless running were a nuisance even for the division’s best defences. If Armstrong is given some coaching and a lengthy run in the team, he could easily become prolific.
Aside from Bird, all of the new names represent gambles and the apparent fallout between Manning and young striker Tommy Conway could overshadow the early weeks of the campaign. The defence, which remained so resolute against the big boys last year, is unchanged though and this continuity will benefit City. The emergence of Max O’Leary as a top-end Championship stopper towards the end of the season was a welcome surprise and he will be relied upon again at times. With these solid foundations, Manning’s side won’t be too far off, but slow progress is more likely than a rapid ascent.
11th: Queens Park Rangers
Marti Cifuentes compromised on his possession-based principles to drag QPR out of the relegation zone kicking and screaming. Now their Championship status has been secured, the Spaniard has set about making changes. So far, the most stark switch is in goal, where Asmir Begovic has been replaced by Gent’s Paul Nardi to help build from the back.
Rangers negotiated well to get £2.5m from Bristol City for the less-than-prolific Sinclair Armstrong, especially because he’s not technical enough to play in the system Cifuentes wants to implement. The Irishman’s pace and unpredictability would have been a useful asset but on paper, Swiss Super League bagsman Zan Celar is an upgrade. Elsewhere, fans will be hoping that the productive left-sided combination of inverted winger Ilias Chair and overlapping wing-back Kenneth Paal isn’t broken apart.
Transitioning from a team of battlers to one seeking control comes with risk. Now that the high-spending 2021-22 season no longer counts towards their FFP position, Rangers must use this extra wriggle room to add more pace at both ends of the pitch. If their possession-based approach doesn’t work, a speedy striker in the Armstrong mould would be a useful plan B. Even if Cifuentes’ ideas do succeed, another nippy centre-back who is comfortable stepping higher up the pitch will be required. For all of his heroics last year, veteran Steve Cook is a potential casualty of the stylistic shift.
Intriguingly, this is Cifuentes’ seventh managerial role since 2013. This could work one of two ways. Either the shine comes off quickly, or Rangers have an elite Championship coach who will probably want to build long-term foundations at the club rather than move on quickly. In either scenario, progress from 18th feels inevitable.
12th: Millwall
Gary Rowett’s time at the Den had run its course but by replacing him with Joe Edwards, Millwall tried to run before they could walk and almost paid the price with relegation to League One. Club legend Neil Harris stepped in and a remarkable late run catapulted the struggling Lions up to 13th.
Marquee signing Macauley Langstaff is a clinical finisher and an energetic presser who should be able to step up from League Two and endear himself to the Millwall crowd while doing so. He should get decent service from a fully-focused Zian Fleming as well as the highly-rated Adam Mayor and Romain Esse. The technical proficiency of the squad, particularly in forward areas, has improved, so the challenge for the instinctively-cautious Harris will be maximising the effectiveness of these creative players. He likes a battering ram up front and with Tom Bradshaw available for transfer and Kevin Nibset must step up following a tricky first year. Although a permanent deal for Japhet Tanganga will boost the defence, the absence of ball-playing centre-backs to bait the opposition press means having a focal point up front will be key.
The Joe Edwards appointment suggests that the ultimate ambition of the Millwall board is to change the style of play, so Neil Harris may only be a temporary solution. It is also possible that while the ex-Lions forward was the perfect boss to galvanise the team in the middle of a relegation scrap, the club’s long-term future may be better overseen by someone else. Regardless, the squad is of sufficient quality to ensure another mid-table finish.
I'm a cov fan.. my best mate a tractor fan.
I do believe this is coventry city season to finally get back in the Premier league.. we are sadly lacking 2 more players.. we need a Central defender who can command the box and lead the club..
Sheffield Wednesday are my dark horses for a play off place. They have the right manager.
Burnley and Luton will struggle to keep a play off place.
Callum O Hare going to the blades was good for the club but not for the player.. greed on wages..
I do believe West Ham had offered a contract but not as much as the blades.
Good luck to the tractor boys and hopefully you can stay up and my beloved Coventry will be there together season after..
Final note.
When coventry got promoted to top flight in 67 Fulham got relegated.. when cov got relegated in 2001 Fulham got promoted both spending the same 33 years in and out of top flight football.
Could the same happen again.