2024-25 Championship predictions: 13th-24th
Half of an attempt to predict the notoriously unpredictable Championship!
You can find the preview for the top half here
13th: Stoke City
Stoke have spent the last six years poaching highly-rated managers from other EFL clubs without ever trying to replicate the environment that made them successful elsewhere. From lazy recruitment to structural problems, the club has been a mess. Last season’s 17th placed finish, their lowest since relegation in 2018, implies more chaos but Steven Schumacher’s side can be cautiously optimistic this summer.
The summer 2023 transfer window, which pre-dated Schumacher’s December arrival, was somewhat chaotic. However, the scouting of foreign markets and the lower leagues made a welcome change from overpaying for over-the-hill Championship players. Amongst the madness, there were plenty of individual success stories. Wouter Burger, Junior Tchamadeu and Bae Jun-Ho all did well, Andre Vidigal displayed early promise and January recruit Million Manhoef provided goals from out wide. Now they’ve had a year to adapt, they can form the basis of a side capable of pushing on.
Interestingly, Schumacher himself significantly improved in his second season at Plymouth Argyle and there are shades of his Pilgrims side in this summer’s business. Viktor Johansson, a phenomenal shot-stopper, bears similarities to Michael Cooper and will be Stoke’s first undisputed number one in years. Ben Gibson’s technical assurance will give the Potters the option to play out from the back while allowing Ben Wilmot to focus on the more traditional aspects of defending. Sam Gallagher will provide the focal point that Ryan Mmae couldn’t and bring Manhoef and Vidigal into play. None of these additions will grab headlines but all three solve existing problems.
Nevertheless, Stoke fans shouldn’t get carried away yet. Wouter Burger has been attracting interest and beyond the star names, there isn’t enough depth, meanwhile Jon Walters is untested in the director of football role. Crucially, the standard of the Championship also-rans will likely be higher this year so the Potters’ probable improvement could only be rewarded with a small rise up the table.
14th: Sheffield Wednesday
For the first two months of last season, Sheffield Wednesday were possibly the worst side in Championship history. Danny Rohl performed a miracle to drag the squad, which had been assembled as a short-term fix to escape League One, to safety.
The 35-year-old, who has coached at Bayern Munich and Southampton, has rifled through his contact book to bring in ex-Saints full-back Yann Valery. The German gaffer’s wider respect in the game was evident when Brighton interrupted James Beadle’s productive loan at Oxford and sent him to Hillsborough in January. The young goalkeeper’s return on a season-long deal is a boost and should provide calmness on the ball once more. With one of the division’s lower budgets, Wednesday will be looking to take advantage of their head coach’s reputation to grab another one or two quality loanees.
In Anthony Musaba and new signing Jamal Lowe, Rohl has a pair of nippy wingers who will be dangerous on the break. The missing piece is a striker to replace Ike Ugbo, whose off-the-ball work and clinical finishing helped preserve Wednesday’s Championship status. Lowe could play that role if required, but a specialist would be preferred. Similarly, with Rohl preferring a midfield two, a more energetic option to rotate with 33-year-old captain Barry Bannan would reduce the risk of the Owls getting overrun in the middle against better opposition.
Backing Wednesday whilst the calamitous Dejphon Chansiri owns the club is always difficult. Signing Rohl up to a three-year deal is reassuring, however the recent chaos in the Hillsborough boardroom may mean the talented German decides to jump ship when the opportunities to do so inevitably presents itself.
15th: Cardiff City
Cardiff defied the odds to achieve a top half finish in May, off the back of a summer transfer embargo and a relegation scrap in the previous campaign.
The Bluebirds surpassed expectations largely due to an exceptional set piece record. Manager Erol Bulut, who hasn’t lasted two full seasons in each of his four previous jobs, has tried to address this lack of open play chance creation with the signing of Chris Willock and relentless pursuit of Alex Robertson. Aaron Ramsey is contracted for another year and Ruben Colwill is uniquely physical for a forward-thinking midfielder. Together, they could make up an impressive quartet of options, albeit one which cannot be relied upon for year-round availability. Local youngster Isaak Davies will be fighting for a place up front after an encouraging loan in Belgium. This could provide a welcome boost for an academy which has produced disappointingly few first team regulars in recent seasons.
On paper, the squad is possibly stronger, yet it is doubtful whether last season’s exploits can be replicated. A minus 17 goal difference and league-low 25 open play strikes are not usually conducive to a 12th placed finish. With no reliable defensive recruits forthcoming and uncertainty over whether Bulut can stay the course, it is difficult to foresee a serious challenge at the right end of the table.
16th: West Bromwich Albion
Betting against Carlos Corberan is a dangerous game. The wily Spaniard was written off with Huddersfield back in 2021 and his West Brom side were not considered among the Championship favourites twelve months ago. He guided both clubs to the play-offs.
Shilen Patel’s takeover has cleared some of the off-field mess yet the mismanagement of the previous regime continues to hold Albion back - steely midfielder Okay Yokuslu has been sold to meet FFP requirements and for just £1.5m it will be tough to replace his quality. It is difficult to argue that Devante Cole represents an upgrade on Brandon Thomas-Asante either. Instead, Baggies fans will be pinning their hopes on academy graduate Tom Fellows, a tricky two-footed winger who brings stardust to an industrious side. EFL restrictions on Albion’s transfer activity mean that the prospect of further buys is slim, meaning they will have to make do with what they have.
Carlos Corberan has beaten the odds before but matching last season’s exploits will require over-achievement on a grander scale. If he is not given sufficient tools to succeed, there is surely a risk that the well-regarded coach gets tempted by an offer elsewhere too. Ultimately, with the club focused on trimming the wage bill and reducing the squad’s average age, 2024-25 could prove to be a transitional campaign on the pitch.
17th: Oxford United
After years of knocking on the playoff door, Oxford have wasted no time preparing for their much-anticipated return to the Championship. Talisman Josh Murphy has left and Przemyslaw Placheta is the latest ex-Norwich City winger hoping to reignite his career at the Kassam Stadium. If the speedy Pole’s arrival represents a punt, the other additions are more measured. Will Vaulks and Idris El Mizouni should bring defensive nous to Yellows’ midfield and allow Tyler Goodrham and Cameron Brannagan, who have both extended their deals, to thrive in front of them.
The captures of offensively-minded full-backs Peter Kioso and Jack Currie suggest that Head Coach Des Buckingham is ditching the ‘reverse mullet’ system. This philosophy placed strict positional instructions on the defenders to utilise Yellows’ midfield creativity while minimising the risk of counter attacks. While changing course is a gamble and will probably lead to some batterings, there is considerable upside because Oxford’s young team is well-suited to a fearless, high-risk approach. As favourites for relegation, the pressure will be off.
They won’t be forgetting their roots entirely though. With the promotion-winning squad still largely intact, they will surely still look to frustrate opponents when needed, as they did so effectively in the playoffs. The presence of Vaulks and Matt Phillips means that the squad won’t be devoid of crucial Championship know-how in these moments either.
The remaining tasks on the to-do list include finding a reinforcement for pressing forward Mark Harris and adding another defender. Even with these new recruits in the door, it will be a struggle, yet Buckingham’s men have what it takes to survive.
18th: Portsmouth
Since Portsmouth pulled off an early coup by nabbing Josh Murphy from Oxford, things haven’t been so rosy. Abu Kamara is part of Norwich’s plans for the season and Alex Robertson, last year’s other outstanding loanee, looks set to join Cardiff instead. The news that bruising striker Colby Bishop will miss the start of the campaign to undergo heart surgery is yet another blow. With gaps in the squad and a gruelling opening fixture run, Pompey will do well to build the early momentum that is so crucial for newly promoted teams.
While the team sheet doesn’t inspire confidence at present, Pompey have two big advantages. As a sporting director, Rich Hughes is one of the EFL’s best, having assembled Forest Green’s 2022 League Two title-winning side before repeating the trick at Fratton Park a division higher. His embrace of the Australian market appears astute and if new left back Jacob Farrell reaches Kusini Yengi’s level, he will be a welcome addition. Once the domestic market speeds up, he should be able to nab some EFL bargains too.
The other big plus is Head Coach John Mousinho. Pompey’s 97 points were not accrued down to an insurmountable talent advantage enjoyed over the rest of the league. Instead, it was Mousinho’s tactical acumen. His in-game tweaks helped Pompey to snatch vital points from their promotion rivals in tight matches. Doing so while adapting to being without Regan Poole and Alex Robertson for long periods of the season was even more impressive. Having only retired as a player in early 2023, the boss should only improve.
As a big fish returning to the Championship, some may back Pompey to follow in the footsteps of Ipswich and Sunderland and immediately challenge at the top. With a thinner squad and smaller budget, matching those feats appears unlikely. Internal expectations seem suitably grounded, which should provide a healthy platform for consolidation.
19th: Preston North End
For Ryan Lowe, guiding Preston to a second consecutive top half finish was a job well done. Despite this, he’s not a popular figure at Deepdale. The fading of early season form, a lack of entertainment and Lowe’s inability to build a rapport with the supporters are all common complaints. After 9 steady but largely uninspiring years in the Championship under a number of different managers, most fans would like to roll the dice again.
League position doesn’t tell the full story either. There are also concerns over creativity (North End ranked third bottom for open play expected goals in 2023-24) which have been exacerbated by a lack of movement to replace Liam Millar. Given Lowe’s preference for a three-at-the-back shape, strengthening at wing-back is arguably the most important assignment for the recruitment team before August becomes September.
As well as being a loss on the pitch, Alan Browne’s departure on a free is further evidence of the board’s failure to sell key players at the right time to bring in the revenue they’d need to attack the transfer market. Some of Preston’s more creative buys, such as the signing of Mads Frokjaer Jensen, have paid dividends and their loan deals have been impressive but a regression seems the likeliest outcome.
20th: Hull City
Hull made some eye-catching January signings in pursuit of a top six finish, a failed gamble which ultimately cost Head Coach Liam Rosenior his job. Now the profitable 2021/22 season no longer counts towards the 3-year FFP assessment period, Jaden Philogene and Jacob Greaves have been sold to avoid any punishment. Given this context, it is hard to foresee the entirety of the £28m generated from these transfers being re-invested. With their two most exciting prospects and a raft of key loanees yet to be replaced, Tigers fans are understandably apprehensive about the new campaign.
The man in the dugout this time is Tim Walter, whose high octane style is the antithesis of Rosenior’s slow build-up approach. Cody Drameh is a shrewd free signing and his presence at right-back should free up Ryan Giles (or whoever replaces him) to operate higher up the pitch, a luxury rarely afforded to Rosenior’s left full-back. The indsutrious and versatile Abduldukir Omur will suit Walter’s philosophy, as will Regan Slater. Outside of that, owner Acun Ilicani will have to make the most of his Turkish contacts and his club’s relationship with Liverpool to bolster the squad.
Hull will inevitably have to accept a step back; the smart approach would be to follow the example set by Coventry and Middlesbrough last season after their own promotion near-misses. If they can invest some of the Greaves and Philogene cash to reduce their reliance on loanees and spend the year bedding in new recruits, they could be a force in the second half of the campaign. However, limited FFP wriggle room and Ilicani’s preference for a quick-fix indicate that the Tigers will find things more challenging.
21st: Plymouth Argyle
For a club with Argyle’s budget, earning a second successive season at Championship level while coping with the loss of Steven Schumacher was a success. However, some underwhelming recruitment and the disastrous reign of Ian Foster have taken the shine off the reputation of the decision makers at Home Park in the past twelve months. Wayne Rooney’s appointment is another puzzling move, given that his body of work so far doesn’t show much evidence that he is suitable for the role, either in terms of results or playing style.
In each of the last two seasons, the Pilgrims have outperformed their expected goals numbers at both ends of the pitch. The excellent shot-stopping of Michael Cooper and the long-range strikes of Morgan Whittaker and Finn Azaz ensured that this was sustainable. Azaz departed in January and their other two star performers are heavily linked with moved away, so defying the data could prove more tricky this time.
If Cooper does leave, signing a new keeper will be a priority because deputy stopper Conor Hazard does not possess the necessarily technical ability to play Rooney’s brand of football. A ball-playing centre-back is another must - perhaps Manchester United’s record goalscorer could call in a favour at his former club and recruit a loanee at the back.
It is difficult to see Rooney lasting the season, meaning that just like so many Championship strugglers, the Argyle’s fate may hinge on who replaces him. The squad is definitely one that an experienced survival expert could work with. The wing-backs are strong, Ryan Hardie is a good bet for a double digit goal haul and the summer business has added height to the team, which should go some way towards solving the Pilgrims’ continued set piece issues. It will be tight and Argyle will need their home form to get them out of trouble, but they may just sneak over the line.
22nd: Watford
As Watford enter their third season back in the Championship and their first without parachute payments, fans of owner Gino Pozzo are increasingly hard to find. Meanwhile, Tom Cleverley, having made the Hornets tough to beat in his nine-match interim spell, is a popular appointment as full-time head coach.
In many areas, the Watford squad is competitive. There is athleticism in midfield, trickery out wide and the defence is passable, even without Wesley Hoedt. The only two glaring gaps are at left back and particularly up front, where the static Mileta Rajovic and Vakoun Bayo offer little. Unfortunately, these are the two most difficult positions for Championship clubs to recruit for, with the EFL conveyer belt currently not producing many gems. The Hornets can no longer rely on sister club Udinese either, with the Italian club having regressed to the point where keeping them in Serie A appears to be the Pozzos’ priority.
If Cleverley starts poorly, there is a risk that the owners could panic and prematurely discard a talented young head coach, as they did with Rob Edwards in 2022. While the hire-and-fire culture at Vicarage Road means that many managers now see the role as a free hit, the standard of boss they could attract will undoubtedly be lower than in previous years. Based on the Pozzos’ record, it is not inconceivable that Watford will soon join the long list of established second tier clubs relegated by off-field incompetence.
23rd: Derby County
Derby return to the Championship without the off-field turmoil that sent them down to League One two years ago. On the pitch, the Rams were the EFL’s set piece kings, with 25 goals scored and just eight conceded, a weapon which should translate well to Championship football, even without departed dead-ball specialist Conor Hourihane. The arrivals of Ebou Adams on a permanent deal and boyhood fan Ben Osborn both bring different qualities to the midfield in the absence of Max Bird, who has left for Bristol City.
Elsewhere, there are issues. The pace of Nathaniel Mendez-Laing, Corey Blackett-Taylor and Kayden Jackson will help the team transition from back to front, but with the exception of Mendez-Laing, there are question marks over their end product. Equally, James Collins and Jerry Yates both struggled in their most recent seasons in the Championship and neither are strikers who can create opportunities for themselves so could struggle for service.
For all the stability he has brought to the club, it is unlikely that fan-turned-owner David Clowes will be able to provide the necessary finances to plug these gaps in the squad either. This will leave Derby reliant on head coach Paul Warne to outperform relative to his budget, something which he is yet to do at Championship level. The Rams will work hard and won’t go down without a fight but probably lack the necessary quality to stay up.
24th: Blackburn Rovers
John Eustace earned plaudits at Birmingham City by taking a relegation-tipped side to safety, amid a backdrop of instability at the club. The Solihull-born head coach transitioned seemessly from non-league idealist at Kidderminster to the ultimate pragmatist in his two Championship roles so far. He has masterminded some against-the-odds victories at this level, and will need to utilise all of this tactical acumen to repeat the trick at Blackburn.
No Championship player made a greater individual contribution to his team than Sammie Szmodics; without his 27 goals, Rovers would be a League One side. Unsurprisingly, he is set to move to the Premier League with Ipswich. The type of goals Szmodics scored, rather than just the volume of them, will be particularly missed. His threat on the counter was tailor-made for Eustace’s counter attacking and the reported sub-£10m fee won’t be enough to replace him, let alone fix the squad’s various other problems. In Sam Gallagher, the squad’s only other Championship-proven striker has gone elsewhere too, signing for Stoke.
Perhaps Rovers can take heart from the way in which they have replaced goals internally in the past. Szmodics stepped up after Ben Brereton Diaz left the club twelve months ago, and the Chile international had himself taken on the scoring burden following Adam Armstrong’s move away. Of the current squad, Tyrhys Dolan and Arnor Sigurdsson seem the most obvious Szmodics successors but they have big shoes to fill. The mood at Blackburn feels eerily similar to eight years ago when the Venky’s sold key players, didn’t replace them and relegation followed.
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