Here is our attempt at the unenviable task of predicting how the Championship’s bottom half will play out. Do you agree with the picks? Comment below.
13th - Ipswich Town
Ipswich arrive in the Championship undefeated since January, following a remarkable unbeaten run which saw them collect 41 points from a possible 45 and clinch promotion. With a clearly defined style of play, financial backing and one of the most promising young managers in the EFL in Kieran McKenna, hopes are high that the Tractor Boys can aspire to more than just surviving in the second tier.
CEO Mark Ashton’s decision to strengthen in January leaves Ipswich well placed, with only a sprinkling of talent required to bring the squad up to Championship standards, rather than a full rebuild. Chelsea loanee Omari Hutchinson will provide a more technical option on the right-hand side to rival Wes Burns for a starting spot and Jack Taylor has the engine to meet the physical requirements of McKenna’s system.
Left centre back is the most obvious gap in the side. Ipswich almost always dominated possession in League One, meaning that the back four were just as responsible for building attacks as they were preventing them. They won’t have things all their own way in the second tier, so the presence of a more traditional defender alongside ball-player Luke Woolfenden is a must.
Some pundits have tipped the Tractor Boys as outsiders for the playoffs and their upward momentum will take them far, but if they get off to a flyer, the highly rated McKenna will surely become a target for Premier League roles, which could make any good start difficult to maintain. Even if the long-term ambition is to reach the top flight, it may take a couple of years to become reality.
14th – West Bromwich Albion
Following Carlos Corberan’s October arrival, West Brom catapulted themselves from relegation battlers to play-off contenders before tailing off to end the campaign in 9th. Most of the squad that went on that incredible run are still around, which should bode well for the upcoming season.
The midfield is very strong; Okay Yokuslu and John Swift’s debut seasons were encouraging, meanwhile Alex Mowatt can reboot his Albion career having spent last year on loan at Middlesbrough. Brandon Thomas-Asante and Jed Wallace will provide the creative spark once more but the backline needs some fresh legs - four of the seven senior defenders on the books are aged 30 or above.
The biggest red flag is off the pitch, with the club no longer in receipt of parachute payments and needing to bring in money in the transfer market, meanwhile no new signings have been made yet and the squad lacks depth. Many of Albion’s key men are in their late twenties so now Dara O’Shea has joined Burnley for £7m, there are very few saleable assets on the books. This casts serious doubt over whether Corberan will be able to generate the funds he needs to compliment a strong first XI.
The manager is clearly capable of outperforming expectations – he took an unfancied Huddersfield to within 90 minutes of the Premier League just fifteen months ago – but dealing with a lack of leadership upstairs is a different challenge altogether so the top six may be a tougher nut to crack this time.
15th – Norwich City
It feels like a new era at Norwich with Stuart Webber, the divisive former sporting director, out the door and the prolific Teemu Pukki moving onto pastures new. The mood at Carrow Road is hardly europhoric in the wake of a disastrous end to 2022-23 and David Wagner needs results quickly, with his new year honeymoon period now a distant memory.
There is plenty to be excited about at the top end of the pitch. New signing Ashley Barnes made a big contribution to a scintillating Burnley side last year and Gabriel Sara should provide enough energy around him to compensate for his lack of mobility. 21-year-old winger Borja Sainz, who netted six goals in the Turkish Super Lig for relegated Giresunspor, is the pick of the additions. Given the Canaries’ recent history of picking up undervalued gems from abroad, there is every chance he will thrive.
Defensively, things are a bit more worrying. Angus Gunn was statistically the Championship’s best shot stopper last time out and with new centre back Shane Duffy, who has struggled for form and fitness for most of the last three years, hardly likely to inspire confidence in front of him, the Canaries will once again be more reliant on their keeper than they’d like to be.
Norwich are one of at least a dozen clubs with an eye on the playoffs but with a manager already on thin ice and a squad which is not significantly better than the one that flattered to deceive last time, it is difficult to back them in a league which is undoubtedly stronger than it was twelve months previously.
16th – Stoke City
Despite suffering huge financial losses, Stoke are yet to even muster a top half finish since relegation from the Premier League in 2018 and another rebuild is on the cards. Manager Alex Neil has two EFL promotions under his belt, but his successes at Norwich and Sunderland came after arriving mid-season to lift a squad of underachievers and there is no obvious quick fix in Staffordshire.
There were some green shoots on display last season, with the Potters’ high pressing causing problems for their opponents and Daniel Johnson’s arrival from Preston should only improve the energy in midfield. Home form was a huge concern though. More than half of Stoke’s matches at the Bet365 ended in defeat and sorting this is a priority as they enter the new season on the back of four consecutive defeats on their own patch. Fans will be hoping that a relatively kind run of early home fixtures can help to create a feel-good factor in the stands.
Stoke’s recruitment is now focussed on finding players compatible with the manager’s system rather than bringing in big names on even bigger wages, so long-term progress looks likely and Neil is a competent EFL manager, even if he is yet to show it in his current role. However, the standard of the division has gone up, so the Potters may have to settle for midtable once again.
17th - Plymouth Argyle
Luton’s promotion grabbed the headlines but Plymouth Argyle breaking the 100 point barrier to win League One was up there with the best achievements of 2022-23. The Pilgrims’ success was built on collecting a phenomenal 61 points at home and while that feat is unlikely to be repeated, the long journeys and vociferous home support which made Home Park such a difficult trip will be just as relevant in the Championship.
Neil Dewsnip is an accomplished technical director whose recruitment last season was exemplary and the unexpected returns of Morgan Whittaker and Bali Mumba have more than softened the blow of Niall Ennis leaving for Blackburn in June. This record ensures there is every reason to trust that new signings Julio Pleguezelo, Lewis Gibson and Kaine Kesler-Hayden will adjust to Championship football, and inject some much needed athleticism into the backline, although conducting such extensive surgery on the defence in a short timespan may cause issues early in the season.
In the dugout, Steven Schumacher is a big plus and has the nous to adjust his system when necessary. The Liverpudlian displayed excellent problem-solving skills by coping with the mid-season recall of Whittaker and injuries to key men Michael Cooper and Adam Randell last year. He used the bench to great effect too, with subtle tactical tweaks helping Argyle over the line in numerous tight matches against their promotion rivals.
The Pilgrims remain a striker and central midfielder short, so survival will be the first target, but the expertise in the dugout and boardroom, as well as a strong record at Home Park, could be enough to push them into mid table.
18th – Watford
Valerien Ismail is the latest name on the managerial merry-go-round at Vicarage Road. It is not hard to see why; at Barnsley he led a well-drilled and hard-working side to the playoffs without much financial backing, a blueprint the Hornets may need to follow with just one year of parachute payments remaining and strong indications that the Pozzo family will not fund a spending spree from their own pockets. Joao Pedro, whose absences coincided with the Hornets’ worst spells last year, will be a big miss and as yet, it doesn’t appear that the £30m Brighton paid for him will be re-invested into the squad.
If ex-Toulouse marksman Rhys Healey is anything like his pre-injury self, the Hornets have got themselves a bargain and the signing of Tom Ince, a relentless presser, for 50k is a great pick up but few of his new teammates jump out as having the necessary attributes required to play in Ismael’s high-energy system. In the absence of Pedro, there are issues with quality too and it will difficult to marry together this lack of talent advantage with the owners’ tendency to hire and fire managers. Given the impending loss of parachute payments, it is difficult to envisage their patience growing.
Another obstacle for Ismael is the squad’s mentality. Former manager Chris Wilder’s decision to lambast his players in public was counter-productive but his words contained an element of truth, that there was a lack of resilience during difficult periods. The Pozzos’ record means that Ismael will only ever be a couple of bad results away from the sack, so motivating his charges will be difficult and a bad start could lead to a disappointing campaign.
19th - Huddersfield Town
When legendary second tier boss Neil Warnock managed to keep Huddersfield in the Championship last season after the Terriers had spent months marooned in the relegation zone before his arrival, he ranked it as the best achievement in a decorated career.
There is some talent in the squad, not least in playmaker Jack Rudoni who came good in the run-in having initially struggled to adjust since joining from AFC Wimbledon. Danny Ward, a favourite of Warnock’s, would be an asset in most second tier squads too and Sorba Thomas is welcomed back after being lent to Blackburn in January. The recruitment has been disappointing though, with Blackpool goalkeeper Chris Maxwell the only arrival thus far.
Warnock’s commitment to another year in West Yorkshire is an understandable cause for optimism but steadying the ship across 46 games is very different to mid-season firefighting. On the three occasions since 2019 in which he has started a campaign in work, at Cardiff and twice at Middlesbrough, he has not pulled up any trees. While it is hard to see the Terriers falling into the third tier under their current boss, it is equally difficult to foresee their miraculous overperformance in the back end of 2022-23 being sustained until next May.
20th - Cardiff City
Cardiff City have fallen down the Championship table every season since dropping into the division, a regression which is strongly linked to Vincent Tan’s waning interest and investment in the club. After a 21st placed finish last time around, it is imperative that the Bluebirds buck the trend.
Aaron Ramsey’s homecoming has grabbed headlines but it is unclear whether he will be able to cope with the league’s gruelling schedule. The pickup of Karlan Grant, who has notched 18 and 19 goals at this level with Huddersfield and West Brom respectively, is particularly shrewd though, not least because Callum Robinson, his strike partner during that prolific season at the Hawthorns, is already in the building. Ebou Adams is also effectively a new addition, having missed all of 2022-23 with injury following a productive stint at Forest Green, and has added bite to the midfield in recent friendlies.
City are still under an embargo though, so the scope for further strengthening is limited and on the managerial front, there are a lot of unknowns. While the board should be applauded for some rare outside-the-box thinking by appointing Erol Bulut, his record in the Turkish Super Lig doesn’t inspire confidence and in a division which has certainly got stronger over the summer, he will have to adjust to the EFL very quickly. Staying up must be the target.
21st- Preston North End
With one of the smallest budgets in the division, Preston’s 12th placed finish should be cause for optimism going into the new season. Yet despite Ryan Lowe clearly overachieving relative to budget, opinion on his tenure so far is mixed. At times, the football has been difficult to watch; last year just 45 league goals were scored, fewer than relegated duo Reading and Blackpool
The current squad will do well to match that total this time; long-serving midfielder Daniel Johnson rejected a new contract to re-unite with former boss Alex Neil at Stoke and last year’s star loanee Tom Cannon won’t be returning. Their departures mean that North End will be without their two most creative forces. Will Keane will provide goals and neat hold up play, but the pace he needs around him to thrive is lacking and poor recent decisions over player contracts mean that the funds required to add some more quality are unlikely to be forthcoming. Fans will be hoping that the club’s effective use of the loan market, which has seen them pick up both Cannon and Cameron Archer since the beginning of 2022, will be enough to keep them clear of safety.
Preston have done well to avoid any serious threat of relegation since their return to the level in 2015, but 2023-24 could be new territory for them.
22nd – Rotherham United
Perennial Championship underdogs Rotherham finally ended their streak of three consecutive second tier relegations with an 18th placed finish last time. Manager Matt Taylor did well to pick his team up after a difficult spell either side of the World Cup break and ensure survival relatively comfortably.
Goalkeeper Viktor Johansson was the standout performer, winning numerous points on his own. The Millers’ conceded the most expected goals in the division, so if they are to evade the drop once more, he will need to be on top form again. In attack, Chiedozie Ogbene’s switch to Luton dents Rotherham’s chances, and for a club that doesn’t generate a lot of money by Championship standards, losing him on a free will make sourcing a replacement even more difficult.
One thing the Millers desperately need to work on is their ability to hold onto a lead. From the 75th minute onwards, they didn’t gain a single point, yet lost out on 10. In relegation battles, resilience is just as important as quality, so if they are to secure a third successive season at this level, Taylor’s men must learn to withstand the pressure.
23rd - Sheffield Wednesday
On the surface, it would appear strange to describe a team coming off the back of a 96 point season as being in turmoil, but all is not well at Hillsborough. Darren Moore unexpectedly left three weeks after the dramatic Wembley playoff victory when owner Dejphon Chansiri allegedly failed to guarantee investment in the squad and match his manager’s wage demands.
This reluctance to spend is concerning. Wednesday have a solid core of players who are individually capable of making the step up but the squad is one dimensional and lacks pace. They often relied on sheer talent advantage to bully teams in League One, something they will not be able to do in the Championship. New boss Xisco Munoz is no great tactician either; in Watford’s promotion campaign, his greatest strength was his ability to retain harmony among a group of players too good for the level. With Wednesday he will need to be more innovative, especially given the poor summer of recruitment.
Alarmingly, Chansiri has set the top six as a minimum target. The Sheffield Wednesday job should be a big pull for second tier managers but with the owner’s expectations are so far out of step with the resources he is willing to provide, it is hard to see how they will be able to attract a high calibre replacement when Munoz surely falls short of that target. Throw the absurd ticket prices into the mix and with a few bad results, things could get toxic at Hillsborough very quickly.
24th - Queens Park Rangers
Following a turbulent twelve months which included three managerial appointments, QPR are in trouble. The Hoops were comfortably the worst team in the division from October onwards and if not for a miraculous victory at Burnley in April, they would be starting August in League One.
At Wycombe, Gareth Ainsworth earned a reputation for punching above his weight with weak squads but there is so far little evidence that his Rangers charges are of the correct profile to play his style of direct, physical football. The funds available to bring these types of players in are lacking too and he is having to sell to buy; losing out on Lewis Wing, a former favourite of Ainsworth’s at Wycombe, to League One Reading demonstrates the budgetary constraints they are under.
The resignation of Les Ferdinand as Director of Football, in part due to a dearth of talent progressing from the academy in recent seasons, should lead to better strategic decisions in the boardroom. However, the fruits of any such improvement are unlikely to be realised in the short term at least. With no money available to add to a limited squad, Rangers are putting all their eggs in the basket of Ainsworth’s motivational skills in their quest to beat the drop.
Bottom Half Predictions:
13th: Ipswich Town
14th: West Bromwich Albion
15th: Norwich City
16th: Stoke City
17th: Plymouth Argyle
18th: Watford
19th: Huddersfield Town
20th: Cardiff City
21st: Preston North End
22nd: Rotherham United
23rd: Sheffield Wednesday
24th: Queens Park Rangers