Why Watford’s failure to win promotion must be the catalyst for off-field change
The Hornets’ short termism has not been a barrier to success, but they no longer have the squad or finances to sustain the approach.
For most people death and taxes are the only two certainties in life. For football fans, there is a third; Watford FC sacking their manager mid-season. In March, Chris Wilder became the 18th man to occupy the Vicarage Road dugout since the Pozzo family bought the club in 2012 and predictably, jokes like these were recycled once again.
Despite all the mocking, the hire and fire culture at Watford has generally paid dividends. Promotion to the Premier League was achieved in 2015, and when they eventually returned to the second tier in 2020, the Hornets went straight back up in 2021. Another relegation last year was a setback but the high performances levels they showed in their previous campaign at Championship level pointed to another swift return.
Plucking Rob Edwards, a modern and process-driven head coach, from Forest Green Rovers seemed to indicate a move away from the short termism too. Chief Executive Scott Duxberry admitted as much, boldly stating that Edwards would be backed “come hell or high water.” Yet the 39-year-old was relieved of his duties after only 10 league games.
Slaven Bilic, a promotion winner with West Brom in 2020, was swiftly announced as his replacement and started promisingly before being dismissed in March with the Hornets having fallen out of the playoff places. Wilder signed a deal to see out the season but results haven’t picked up, with the club recently feeling compelled to release a statement confirming that they wouldn’t be sacking the man they had appointed less than a month earlier.
Even though results on Saturday effectively ended the Hornets’ slim promotion chances, history suggests that the club’s poor on-field performance and the managerial instability are not linked. In the 2020/21 promotion season, Vladamir Ivic was replaced by Xisco Munoz in October and having four different men take charge of the 2014/15 squad didn’t stop them finishing in second place.
However, the impact of Watford’s financial advantage over most of their opponents two years ago, and the strength of the squad, cannot be overstated. Ismaila Sarr and Joao Pedro stuck around for a year in the Championship and were instrumental in the promotion campaign.
They stayed on again last summer and their struggles for form and fitness respectively are partly why the Hornets have not been able to mount another challenge for the top two. Nonetheless, the chances of either spending another season in the second tier are remote and both will be missed when their inevitable departures are confirmed.
The Hornets will undoubtedly receive hefty fees for the pair and still have the final instalment of parachute payments to come. But there is little faith among the supporters that a war chest will be available in the summer window either to replace their star forwards or rebuild the leaky defence. In October, the Athletic reported that the Pozzos were looking to sell a stake in the club.
Nothing has materialised as yet but the rumours provided an indication of the family’s reluctance to invest moving forward. Many supporters wouldn’t mind a change either, with ‘Pozzo Out’ banners being unveiled in the stands at Vicarage Road during recent home matches.
The most obvious consequence of the financial situation is the forthcoming drop in the quality of the playing squad, but it will make their task of appointing head coaches more difficult too. With a talent advantage over the rest of the division, bringing in a man-manager like Munoz to maintain harmony was enough in 2020-21, but with less money and a less gifted group, future head coaches will need to devise a clearer tactical plan and be given time in the job if they are to trouble the top of the table.
Of course, the Hornets won automatic promotion back in 2015 without the help of parachute payments. Instead, the owners utilised their connections to great effect. At the time, the Pozzo family also owned Serie A side Udinese and La Liga outfit Granada and made excellent use of their network of clubs. Prolific forwards Matej Vydra and Odion Ighalo, among others, arrived at Vicarage Road from Italy and Scottish wing-back Ikechi Anya excelled after swapping Spain for Hertfordshire.
It is hard to see how this plan can be replicated moving forward, though. The Pozzos sold Granada in 2016 and though Watford still trade with Udinese, since 2021 only three players have arrived from the Italian club. When the Pozzos first bought Watford eleven years ago, I Bianconeri regularly qualified for European competitions, yet they have failed to even muster a top ten finish since 2013. Part of the reason for this decline has been the owners’ decision to prioritise success with the Hornets, given the riches on offer in the Premier League.
However, Udinese being relegated would still be a devastating blow for the Pozzos, whose reputation has taken a hit due to the team’s regression on the pitch. Although I Bianconeri have maintained their place in Serie A, they have had to look over their shoulders on more than one occasion. This means the owners can no longer strengthen the Watford squad with arrivals from across their network, without seriously jeopardising top flight status in Italy, hence the reduced business between the two clubs.
Not only is this a relationship with diminishing benefits, it has also caused problems. The EFL recently announced an investigation into the transfer of Hassane Kamara. Watford loaned the left-back in from Udinese this summer, after having sold him to the Italians for £16m, a suspiciously large sum for a player of his ability. Even if the investigation doesn’t culminate in any punishment, it is a worry the Vicarage Road boardroom could do without.
Without strong finances or the silver bullet of the Pozzo network to fall back on, the Hornets are no longer the finished article and don’t have a squad ready-made to achieve promotion. This means they must look elsewhere for inspiration.
Millwall have overachieved through stability, with Gary Rowett being afforded time to slowly build upon the work of his predecessor Neil Harris, who brought the Lions out of League One. Likewise, local rivals Luton Town reached the top six last season on a shoestring budget and losing manager Nathan Jones to Southampton in October hasn’t derailed their 2022-23 campaign either. Ex-Hornets boss Rob Edwards took over and although he has brought fresh ideas to Kenilworth Road, the squad he inherited was well-drilled and the playing style he has adopted bears strong similarities to the philosophy implemented by Jones. Thanks to this joined up thinking, Hatters will contest their second consecutive playoff semi-final next month.
By constantly chopping and changing, Watford have been unable to develop an identity, something which will be vital if they have designs on a Premier League return. The arrival of Ben Manga as director of football hints at change but after the quick sacking of Edwards contradicted Scott Duxberry’s post-relegation promise of patience, fans will not be reassured until they see positive results, or at least the remnants of a long-term plan.
On the pitch, the nucleus of a competent Championship squad is there. When fit, Imran Louza is a capable midfielder. Ryan Porteous has shown flashes of form since arriving from Hibernian in January, meanwhile Ken Sema and Francisco Sierralta were mainstays of the promotion winning side of two years ago. The Hornets won’t be among the favourites to go up next year but in a Championship which is poor by historical standards, a few years of patience, careful planning and clever recruitment can go a long way.
The summer of 2023 is an important one for Watford. In 11 years under the Pozzos, the Hornets have reached heights that eluded them for much of the previous decade, but for that success to be replicated, the owners need to demonstrate a willingness to adapt.
Whether they can do this will decide their legacy at Vicarage Road. Will they be known as innovative thinkers who changed their approach when times were tough, or trigger-happy bosses who initially lucked out before leaving the club in a worse state than they found it in? In a few years, a clear answer will emerge.