Squad Surgery: Southampton
In the final instalment of a three part series, we take a team and look at where they need to strengthen ahead of 2023-24. This time, the spotlight falls on recently relegated Southampton.
Southampton will start 2023-24 in the EFL after their 11-year stay in the Premier League ended with a whimper and just 25 points. Once seen as the blueprint of how a non-big six club should be run with stability, smart transfer business and regular top half finishes, Saints went through three managers last season and ended up bottom of the pile in May. Russell Martin looks set to be brought in from Swansea City to become the fourth man in the dugout since November and will be tasked with returning the club to English football’s top table.
With Martin yet to be formally appointed at St Mary’s, it is difficult to be certain of how Saints will line up. At Swansea, he regularly switched between a 3-4-2-1 and 4-1-4-1, whereas in his two seasons at MK Dons, the three-at-the-back system was almost always preferred. While the formation he will use is up in the air, the style isn’t; Martin’s teams like to keep the ball and play short passes, with only Burnley enjoying more possession than Swansea in the Championship last season.
For the Saints players, it will mark a big shift from the direct approach favoured by previous manager Nathan Jones or the high-pressing philosophy implemented by Ralph Hassenhuttl before him, so the adjustment won’t be simple. However, with former Premier League players at his disposal, Martin should be confident that alongside a few additions, he will have the squad to put his ideas into practice.
As with any team dropping into the Championship, there will be turnover in the playing staff. Captain James Ward-Prowse will surely depart along with Romeo Lavia, one of the few players to emerge from the most recent campaign with an enhanced reputation. Wideman Mislav Orsic has already been linked with other clubs after just half a season on the South Coast, meanwhile at the back, Kyle Walker-Peters, Mohammed Salisu and Armel Bella-Kotchap are all of sufficient quality to attract top flight suitors.
This means that the Saints recruitment team are in for a busy summer. Since the Sports Republic takeover in 2022, a greater emphasis has been placed on data to identify transfer targets and, apart from the January 2023 window, when more established names were brought in in an attempt to stave off relegation, the club has almost exclusively gambled on youth. With relegation only increasing the importance of creating organic and sustainable revenue streams, it is likely that signings will be made with potential re-sale value in mind once more.
Although Saints will need more depth across the pitch once the expected outgoings are confirmed, there are four key areas which they should look to prioritise.
Centre Back
The expected departures of Salisu and Bella-Kotchap will leave the defence in need of reinforcements and if the focus on buying and developing young talent continues in the Championship, Peterborough United’s Ronnie Edwards, who was linked with a move to St Mary’s last summer, may be of interest again. Edwards, who represented England at this summer’s Under-20 World Cup in Argentina, has an outstanding passing range for a defender, which would make him an excellent asset in a team which should favour slow and intricate build up play.
Chelsea and Spurs are rumoured to be sniffing around, so choosing Southampton may be seen as an unambitious move on his part, but he is unlikely to go straight into either clubs’ first team and at 20, Edwards may not want to sign himself up to a spell on loan or in the under 23s. Playing as a regular in a wealthy Championship side would provide him with the opportunity to move into the Premier League and even he doesn’t get there with Saints, there is no better platform for a ball-playing defender to showcase themselves to scouts from top flight clubs than a Russell Martin team.
Aged 23, Luke McNally of Burnley is slightly older but would fit the bill too. McNally is a more well-rounded option, with enough technical ability to play in a team building attacks through short passing in deep areas whilst still excelling at the traditional tasks of a centre back with his aerial dominance and tough tackling. The former Oxford defender’s blend of progressive and defensive skills would allow Martin to implement his philosophy while helping Saints prepare for a return to the Championship, a league in which they will face more direct and physical threats than they did in the top flight.
Sports Republic will already be in transfer discussions with Burnley this summer over the future of Nathan Tella, the Saints forward who excelled on loan at Turf Moor and given the Clarets’ desire to make the move permanent, the owners could leverage this to bring McNally to St Mary’s in a cut-price deal.
Left Back
Saints will want to keep hold of Frenchman Romain Perraud but given that there will almost certainly be interest in him from elsewhere, it would be wise to plan for a replacement.
Should he be appointed, there is every chance that Martin will look to former club Swansea for targets and it will be a surprise if Ryan Manning, whose contract expires in June, is not considered. He came into his own in 22-23, completing more key passes than anybody else in the Championship and registering 15 goal contributions, the highest of any defender. The other standout statistic of Manning’s season is that aside from Bristol City wonderkid Alex Scott, he was the most fouled player in the division, further highlighting his importance in the Swans’ supply line.
Given the stark difference between Martin’s tactics and the philosophy instilled in the squad by Saints’ previous bosses, bringing in somebody who has played under his management before would go a long way towards easing the transition and Manning has certainly earned the right to be playing in a team targeting promotion to the Premier League.
One of the other standout left backs from last season may be a target too. Ryan Giles of Wolves will be in demand after a successful loan at Middlesbrough, where he established himself as a key creative force in one of the league’s most attacking sides with 11 assists. Usually a player with such a record would be primed for a season in the Premier League but there are worries that defensively, he is still too naïve to make the step up. If Martin opts for a back five system, these weaknesses would be less of an issue, allowing Giles to focus on helping his team mates further up the pitch. James Ward Prowse’s likely sale leaves Saints in need a new set piece taker too and Giles, one of the best in the Championship from dead ball situations, could help to fill this gap.
There are practical reasons why the deal could work too. Wolves are currently facing financial uncertainty and Giles is an asset who, if not integrated into the first team, could be sold for a high seven-figure fee to generate some much-needed funds. Middlesbrough will undoubtedly want to take him back to the Riverside so competition will be tough but with the Teessiders needing to spend big to replace their key loanees without parachute payments, they may not feel that committing a large sum to a full back is within their means. This could open the door for Southampton to make Giles an attractive offer.
Central Midfield
Another Martin favourite who could make his way to the south coast is Matt Grimes. The captain is the most important cog in the Swansea machine, dropping into the defence to help start attacks from inside The Swans’ own half and offering himself as an option to recycle attacks when the killer ball isn’t on. Grimes’ pass completion rate of 91.2% was only bettered by two other players in the division, so bringing the Exeter City academy graduate to St Mary’s would be another method of familiarising the squad with Martin’s tactics.
Signing Grimes would bring other benefits too. In a team which lacks experience at this or any level, recruiting the skipper of a Championship rival with over 200 appearances in the division would inject some much-needed leadership qualities, especially in anticipation of a probable transfer for Ward-Prowse.
For the player, the move would surely appeal. Despite making his professional debut a decade ago, Grimes has still yet to win a promotion in his career and it is difficult to envisage Swansea challenging at the top end of the table given the board’s reluctance to invest in what is an unremarkable squad for the level. Saints are much better placed to return to the Premier League, whether that is in the coming season or in the future, so Grimes would be increasing his chance of silverware if the transfer were to go through.
Despite the obvious bond between player and manager, Grimes does not fit the age profile of a Saints signing so they may choose to look elsewhere. Barnsley youngster Luca Connell has a similar skillset and although less proven, at 22 years old, both his ceiling and re-sale value are higher.
Instead of dominating proceedings, Barnsley’s run to the playoff final was built on the midfield working hard out of possession and keeping their discipline, a philosophy almost alien to Martin, but when the Tykes had the ball they used it well. Connell was one of the key reasons why his team racked up 86 points while controlling play just 48.6% of the time and registered eight assists as the deepest player in a midfield trio which covered a lot of ground. In a possession-based team where he would be able to focus more on dictating the play rather than breaking it up with effective pressing, he could reach an even higher level.
Striker
Like most Premier League clubs, Southampton’s scouting has been largely focused in other European leagues but after relegation, the calibre of player they will now be able to may find it tricker to access a work permit, which narrows the pool of potential incomings.
There are some players based on the continent who would have no such difficulties though, like English born Josh Maja, who last season contributed 16 goals and 6 assists in a Bordeaux team built primarily on organisation at the back rather than prowess going forward.
Maja made his name at Sunderland playing off the shoulder of the last defender but can also shoot from range and is agile enough to create space for himself in crowded areas, attributes which will be of value in a Saints team which opponents will look to frustrate by defending deep.
The London-born attacker took a while to adjust to the move to France and spent time on loan at Fulham and Stoke City before establishing himself as an essential part of the Bordeaux team this campaign. Having finally recaptured the form that earned him attention as a youngster at Sunderland, Maja surely has designs on moving back to England permanently and finding a club at which he can properly settle, especially with Les Girondins having narrowly missed out on promotion back to Ligue 1.
Another option from outside the EFL is Duk, the Cape Verde international who has established himself as a fan favourite in a breakout season at Aberdeen. The 23-year-old’s goals have helped propel The Dons back into the Europa League and Saints are reportedly monitoring him ahead of a potential summer switch.
Duk is exactly the type of player Saints have recruited since the takeover. Sports Republic have tended to look at youngsters who have been developed at elite academies; in the summer 2022 transfer window, Gavin Bazunu, Juan Larios and Samuel Edozie were all brought in from Manchester City. Before joining the Dons, Duk progressed through the Benfica youth system, one of the best in Europe, which will reassure the Southampton hierarchy that he could make the step up from the Scottish Premiership.
Duk has a skillset which could provide Saints with a much needed plan B if Martin finds that his ‘pass them to death’ approach becomes predictable, as it sometimes did with Swansea. He is not afraid to run at defenders and has the physicality to hold them off, offering opportunities for other forward players to find a route to goal.
Next season is a big one for Southampton. Championship clubs with parachute payments have an enormous advantage in a division which is still yet to fully recover from the financial impact of Covid-19 and with fans having got used to top flight football, there will be pressure to push for an immediate return. Making that step into the top two will require smart business in the transfer window and for the owners, they desperately need to improve upon last season’s dealings.