Paul Warne and the importance of tactical flexibility
The ex-Rotherham boss has moved away from the 3-5-2 which brought him so much success in his previous job and Derby are reaping the rewards.
Taking over at a new club mid-season is challenging for any manager. Without a transfer window to build a squad or a pre-season to communicate their ideas, they are faced with a tough choice. Do they sacrifice their principles and build a system to fit the players they inherit, or mould their new charges into a formation familiar to themselves and their coaching staff?
This season, Kolo Toure and Neil Critchley picked the second option. Toure took Leam Richardson’s Wigan squad, which had won League One playing an attritional style only six months previously, and instructed them to instead build from the back. Similarly, Critchley discarded Mick Beale’s successful 4-3-1-2 at QPR, in favour of the 4-4-2 he had employed during his spell at Blackpool. Both men lasted just two months before receiving their P45.
When Paul Warne swapped Rotherham United for Derby County in September, he arrived with a formidable reputation as a promotion specialist, having guided the Millers up from League One on three occasions. If anyone had earned the right to implement a chosen philosophy on his squad, it was him.
At the New York Stadium, Warne stuck religiously to a 3-5-2, packing the centre of the pitch and playing direct football with two physical strikers. It was therefore little surprise to see Warne’s Derby side mimic this formation for his first league match away to Cambridge.
However, despite local businessman David Clowes having saved the club from financial ruin and given Warne’s predecessor Liam Rosenior the green light to make 13 senior summer signings, the squad still lacked defensive width. Jason Knight, a midfielder by trade who had been filling in on the right of defence, was an uncomfortable fit for the wing-back role. On the other side, Craig Forsyth‘s age, injury record and lack of pace prevented him from bombing up and down the flank. Instead, wingers Nathaniel Mendez-Laing and Tom Barkhuizen, the club’s most effective attackers during Rosenior’s tenure, were selected in those positions.
Initial results were poor: Warne’s opening five league fixtures yielded just two wins. Defeat at Ipswich Town on 21st October left the Rams marooned in 11th, four places lower than when Warne had taken charge. A goalless draw with newly-promoted Exeter City the following midweek caused some fans to ponder whether dismissing Rosenior, a well-liked figure at the club, had been a mistake.
The squad had been assembled for a possession-based 4-2-3-1 and it was becoming clear that the players could not adapt to the direct 3-5-2. Mendez-Laing and Barkhuizen struggled with their defensive responsibilities and were unable to create chances from their deeper starting positions. The formation also failed to utilise David McGoldrick’s talents as a withdrawn forward and relied too heavily upon James Collins and young loanee Will Osula as the only physical strikers in the squad.
The January window was still months away and thanks to the reckless spending of previous owner Mel Morris, The Rams had been placed under a transfer embargo until 2024. The terms of the punishment prohibit the club from forking out on transfer fees, meaning the EFL would only sanction free and loan additions. Given that very few players remain out of contract mid-season, Rosenior’s signings would have to form the bulk of the Derby squad moving forward.
Knowing his players did not suit his preferred system and that the scope for bringing in new faces was severely limited, Warne decided to abandon the tactical revolution. He switched back to the 4-2-3-1 and the change in fortunes was instant. A sixteen match unbeaten run followed the Portman Road defeat and the Rams catapulted up the table, from 11th to 4th.
Numerous players have caught the eye. McGoldrick, who has impressed both as a forward ahead of Knight and a number 10 behind Collins, has registered an incredible 3 hattricks since October. This record is made even more impressive by the fact that the Irish international had never previously notched 3 goals in a game in any of his previous sixteen seasons as a professional.
Before his recent injury, Max Bird’s energy and calmness in possession gave Conor Hourihane more license to get forward and covered for his midfield partner’s limited attributes out of position. Back in their natural positions and without the defensive shackles of the wing-back role, the attacking output of Mendez-Laing and Barkhuizen has returned to its early-season high standards.
At the other end of the field, 21 year-old Irish youth international Eiran Cashin has continued to command the defence with outstanding maturity, even after losing the protection of a third centre-back alongside him. Currently, only Bolton Wanderers and league leaders Sheffield Wednesday have conceded fewer goals than the Rams.
Two recent defeats, combined with the relentless form of Wednesday and Plymouth Argyle will probably condemn Derby to the play offs. However, Warne’s record in big games and the number of standout performers in his squad mean that even if the automatic promotion is beyond them, the Rams could be reunited with the Owls and Pilgrims in the Championship by August.
In September 2022, Derby County and Paul Warne deciding to work together made perfect sense. The Rams were desperate for League One knowhow to guide them through their first third tier campaign since 1987 and Warne needed a new project, one with potential for more than a Championship relegation scrap every other season.
After a rocky first month, this mutually beneficial arrangement is back on a promising path. For many Derby fans, a season of consolidation would have sufficed after the off-field turbulence of the Mel Morris years. Yet Warne may still be able to ensure that Pride Park is a Championship venue once again next season.