Oxford United’s managerial conundrum
For a club in need of both a long-term plan and an immediate upturn in results, the ideal appointment may not exist.
On Sunday 25th February, Karl Robinson left the Kassam Stadium for the final time. A drab 3-0 defeat to Bristol Rovers proved to be the last straw and with it, The U’s are now searching for their first new manager in half a decade.
Had this decision been taken six weeks earlier, recently appointed Portsmouth boss John Mousinho would have been the obvious replacement, but the departure of Robinson’s former assistant leaves the U’s with a big call to make.
After successive play-off campaigns and an 8th-placed finish under Robinson, the atmosphere at the Kassam Stadium has soured following this season’s poor form. There is a need for the new boss to create a distinct identity at the club and reinvigorate a fanbase still recovering from the unravelling of the Robinson era.
Neil Critchley did this at Blackpool, winning the play-offs in his first season in management, with a unique brand of attacking football. He has recently become available after departing QPR and would be a credible and realistic long term option, but Oxford’s poor league position could make this an awkward fit.
They sit just three points above the relegation zone, having played three more matches than 21st-placed Accrington Stanley. Despite Critchley’s credentials, his Blackpool side started slowly and he was recently dismissed at QPR after winning just one of his opening 12 games. For a team looking for positive results immediately, this is not an encouraging sign.
Bookmakers’ favourite Michael Appleton, a promotion winner during his previous stint with Oxford, would be a popular appointment but is another process manager. Even though he eventually succeeded, it is easy to forget that he struggled in his first season at the Kassam. His spell at Lincoln City followed a similar pattern, which is further evidence that he may be incapable of overseeing the necessary instant improvement.
However, at the other end of the spectrum, the short-term approach may not be possible either. While the Championship has a cavalry of managerial firefighters on call and ready to ride to the rescue of relegation-threatened clubs for the last few months of the season, League One does not have an equivalent Neil Warnock or Mick McCarthy figure.
Of the available third tier bosses, Danny Cowley is probably the closest fit and has made a positive initial impact in his previous roles. But unlike the the aforementioned Warnock and McCarthy, he is of an age whereby he would likely want a longer contract, something which could divide the fanbase due to the polarising nature of his character. Leam Richardson is the best compromise between long-term planning and a short-term boost but it is unclear whether he would be interested in the position, having spent the vast majority of his career, both as a coach and player, with clubs in the North.
Another option would be to gamble on an untried head coach in the Mousinho mould. Des Buckingham, who spent a decade on the backroom staff at Oxford and is well-regarded in coaching circles, has been touted as an outside bet for the role. He is currently managing Mumbai City in the Indian Super League so isn’t totally untested, but he has never been a number one in England.
New managers with extensive coaching backgrounds often fare well in League One. However, they have generally been surrounded by more senior colleagues in other positions. Neil Critchley was joined by ex-Nottingham Forest and Northampton Town boss Colin Calderwood in the dugout at Blackpool and Kieran McKenna’s eye-catching Ipswich Town side has been assembled under the guidance of well-travelled Chief Executive Mark Ashton.
Without a head of recruitment or assistant manager since the departures of Mark Thomas and Mousinho respectively, Oxford are missing a crucial ingredient to this recipe for success. Throwing an inexperienced boss into a fierce relegation battle without the correct structure alongside him is a risk which could end up with the club back in League Two.
In all likelihood, Oxford should have just enough to beat the drop. The small points gap above the bottom four is a concern but with three teams between themselves and the relegation zone, the U’s have the quality to emerge victorious from a congested survival battle.
If they can weather the coming storm, Oxford United is a club with the potential to challenge in the upper echelons of the division, as shown by Robinson’s record prior to 2022. This can only happen if the board make the correct choice with their next appointment though, and it is an unenviable task.