With Vincent Kompany at the helm, a cold night in Burnley is an entirely different prospect

The Clarets’ stunning form in the Championship this season shows why comparisons between the Belgian and Pep Guardiola have merit.

As Dutch forward Steven Bergwijn sat in the Tottenham Hotspur treatment room in March 2020, the medical staff at his new club gave him a stark warning ahead of their upcoming fixture at Turf Moor. “We used to say ‘but can they do it at Stoke on a cold Tuesday night?’ It’s now Burnley.” Every viewer of the fly-on-the-wall All or Nothing documentary knew what that description meant. During Sean Dyche’s decade in charge, trips to Lancashire were famously awkward for opponents. His team did not possess the most technically gifted footballers, but the chilly weather, 4-4-2 formation and physicality often represented a harsh culture shock for overseas arrivals like Bergwijn.

Unsurprisingly, the departure of their long-serving manager in 2022 and sun setting on their six-year stay in the top flight left the Clarets at a crossroads. The need to make repayments on a £65m loan taken out by ownership group ALK Capital to finance their takeover made instant promotion a necessity. Furthermore, the next boss would have to achieve it without the services of several long-serving players who left the club.

The size of the financial pressure and inevitable squad rebuild ahead made the appointment of ex-Manchester City captain Vincent Kompany a risky one. Despite his obvious pedigree as a player, the Belgian hadn’t won a trophy in his only previous managerial role at Anderlecht and his possession-based principles bore little resemblance to the distinctive identity Dyche had created. While the recently appointed Everton boss experimented with more expansive tactics during his final season at Turf Moor, he had spent much of his ten-year reign encouraging his team to sit in a low block, concede possession and launch direct attacks. Naturally, he had recruited players to suit this system, and despite the squad churn, many of them remained. In short, either Burnley or Kompany had to change their ways.

Ultimately, the new boss decided that it was the players that would make the compromises. Three arrivals from Manchester City and five from the Belgian Pro League made up the bulk of the summer recruitment and the Clarets looked unrecognisable in their opening-day victory at Huddersfield, effortlessly controlling possession to the extent that achieving the three points with just a one-goal margin of victory felt like a disappointment.   

Inevitably, there were teething problems too: the Huddersfield triumph was followed by a four-game winless streak, often conceding late goals and struggling to convert their dominance into victories. Yet this proved to be just a minor blip, and by October Kompany had led his side to the top of the league with a comfortable cushion between themselves and second place, as he had done so many times as a player under Pep Guardiola’s stewardship.

However, the managerial similarities between Kompany and his former boss extend far beyond high points totals. Recruiting Arnajet Muric as Nick Pope’s successor is one such example. The Man City academy graduate was criticised for his poor shot-stopping in his previous Championship spell at Nottingham Forest, but Kompany was undeterred, shelling out £3m for the Kosovan. Even though Muric’s reflexes have improved, they are not outstanding by Championship standards. Instead, it is his calmness in possession and ability to build attacks from deep which separate him from his peers.

This decision echoed Guardiola’s signings of Claudio Bravo and Ederson as replacements for Joe Hart, who often struggled with the ball at his feet. While Pope left of his own accord and would not have been jettisoned by his manager in the same way as Hart, the stylistic crossover is clear. Kompany did not expect Muric to produce a highlight reel of match-winning saves, but he was happy to sacrifice this for a greater degree of control, knowing that his keeper would be unlikely to face a barrage of shots given the talent advantage his team would enjoy over most second-tier opponents.

The back four also plays a key role in creating chances - only Swansea’s midfield metronome Matt Grimes has completed more open-play passes in the Championship than centre-back Taylor Harwood-Bellis this season. Although long passing is an attribute in the Manchester City loanee’s varied repertoire, he tends to favour short distribution, mirroring the defenders at his parent club.

In transition, left-back Ian Maatsen often acts as a third winger and it is not uncommon to see both the Dutchman and right-back Connor Roberts staying on the edge of the opposition box once attacks have developed, to sustain the territorial advantage. With this combination of relentless pressing and outstanding technical ability, the Clarets typically control possession 62.8% of the time during league matches. Dyche’s title win in 2015-16 with just 48.2% of the ball demonstrates that this is a tactical choice rather than a natural consequence of facing a poorer quality of opponent.  

Ahead of the defence, Kompany frequently switches between a 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1, which morphs into a 4-4-2 out of possession to facilitate the high press. This means that the four forward players are required to show the positional versatility best displayed by Bernardo Silva (and before him Raheem Sterling) at the Etihad Stadium. Top scorer Nathan Tella has shone in a variety of positions across the front three and Josh Brownhill, previously deployed in defensive midfield, now plays as a goalscoring number ten, a role which Ashley Barnes, hardly known for his mobility, excelled in during the recent win at Norwich City. Integrating the likes of Cork and Barnes, stalwarts of the Dyche era, into such a progressive system, alongside the new signings, is arguably the most impressive of Kompany’s tactical accomplishments.

The team does possess some weaknesses though. Despite much of their Premier League overachievement having been built on their strength in dead-ball situations, Burnley now look vulnerable when defending set pieces. At the other end, the Clarets’ expected goals tally trails significantly behind the league-high sixty-one strikes they have registered so far and although Tella’s exceptional finishing may continue, Manuel Benson’s habit of overhitting far-post crosses into the top corner of the net is less sustainable.  

However, if this good fortune runs out, the Clarets’ seventeen-point lead over third-placed Middlesbrough means that promotion can be achieved even with an average record between now and May. And once he knows which division he will be coaching in next season, likely well before the final match of the current campaign, Kompany will have ample time on the training pitch to address the defensive deficiencies before August.

So, what next? Reaching the Premier League would represent Kompany’s greatest managerial achievement so far but also his toughest challenge. After transforming the club’s identity, can he maintain the attractive style of play in a league where his team will no longer enjoy a talent advantage over their opponents? This is a problem few coaches are able to solve, but those who do manage it attract attention. Eddie Howe and Graham Potter were both quickly linked with larger jobs and Kompany too will be sought-after if Burnley can remain easy on the eye without their top-flight status being threatened as a result.

Providing he maintains his impressive start, when a managerial change is eventually made at the Etihad, their former captain will inevitable be linked with, and interested in the post. That day is unlikely to come soon though, as Guardiola is contracted until 2025. While it is far from certain that the former Anderlecht boss will succeed the Catalan, this timescale is convenient for all parties. Kompany has two years to re-establish Burnley as a Premier League force, a period in which Clarets fans can continue to enjoy his tactical innovation ,and the Man City hierarchy will undoubtedly continue to monitor his progress.

Even if his dream move does not transpire, the Belgian has built a team which will surely rank among the finest in recent EFL history and one which supporters at Turf Moor will continue to remember long after he eventually departs.