Colchester United can finally trust the process, but they desperately need results.

Although the U’s have broken the cycle of lazy player recruitment and internal managerial appointments, it might not be enough to stave off relegation.

Since the club achieved a finish of 10^th in their debut Championship campaign of 2006-07, Colchester United fans have had little to shout about. A swift return to League One came just a year later, and after circling the drain with survival battles and last-day heroics, the U’s were relegated once more in 2016.

An equally concerning pattern has emerged in the fourth tier; Colchester were initially competitive and reached the playoffs in 2020 but have floundered in the lower reaches of the table ever since and now sit just a point above the bottom two. 

The constant throughout this decline has been owner Robbie Cowling. The 62-year-old Jobserve founder took charge sixteen years ago and clashes with supporters as well as the team’s lacklustre performances on the pitch have made him a polarising figure at the Colchester Community Stadium. Pockets of the fanbase are still onside, citing his financial backing, although the majority believe that his poor decision making is the driving force behind the club’s fortunes.

Evidence of Cowling’s bad choices can be found by glancing at a list of the managers and head coaches he has hired. In the 12 years following May 2010, he appointed eight permanent bosses, seven of whom were already employed by the club in another capacity when they took the job. Of that seven, only John McGreal can credibly claim to have been a success, yet the owner stuck with his process and results suffered.  

Eventually Cowling broke this cycle in September 2022 and made an external appointment, replacing Wayne Brown with Wycombe Wanderers first team coach Matt Bloomfield. The former midfielder represented a clear upgrade on his predecessor; the U’s midtable form was a level above where they had been under Brown, who departed with the club in 21st place.

This was a promising start for a rookie head coach and excitement was building among Colchester fans about what their new boss could achieve if given the opportunity to make a lasting impact.

Remarkably, Bloomfield was lured away less five months after he arrived, when the managerial vacancy became available at his former club Wycombe in February. To Cowling’s credit, having his fingers burned would have been a convenient excuse to revert to type and look inwards once more, but he didn’t. Instead, he turned to Ben Garner, a hire which many fans saw as a coup. Despite a difficult stint at Bristol Rovers, Garner had arrived at Swindon Town amid off-field turbulence in July 2021 and the Robins only missed out on promotion via a penalty shootout in the playoff semi-finals.

So far, it hasn’t worked out, with Garner’s first six matches yielding four draws and two defeats. These results, combined with Hartlepool United’s recent revival have left the U’s looking nervously over their shoulders.  

The possession-based style which earned Garner plaudits in Wiltshire requires players to demonstrate technical attributes which many in the fourth tier don’t have and without a transfer window to reshape the squad, it has been a clunky fit. Colchester have only dominated the ball in a third of his matches thus far and found the net just four times; in stark contrast with Garner’s Swindon, who were League Two’s highest scorers during his solitary season at the County Ground.

However, if given a pre-season to drill these methods into his charges, there is every chance that it could prove to be a successful long-term appointment and seeing the club continue to move away from the previous hiring process is encouraging.

Player recruitment is another area where the club’s strategy has lacked imagination. The best example of this was the bizarre summer 2021 window, which saw the arrival of six players from neighbours Ipswich Town. Taken in isolation, some of the additions have been shrewd. Cole Skuse won the players’ player of the year award last season and when fit, Emyr Huws has shown why he has spent most of his career at a higher level but signing half a starting XI from a club 40 minutes up the A12 in the space of a few months felt lazy. Without the diabolical form of Oldham Athletic and Scunthorpe United below them, relegation would have been a genuine threat for much of the campaign.

Matt Jay swapped Exeter for Colchester in January

This season, the net has been cast much wider. Before his departure, Bloomfield was given the funds to make three eye-catching purchases in January. Lincoln City’s Tom Hopper, Connor Hall of Port Vale and Exeter City captain Matt Jay all spent the first half of the season as regular first-teamers in the division above but were persuaded to relocate to Essex for a scrap in League Two.

Aside from Hall, who has brought a much-needed calmness to the U’s defence, the new signings haven’t been convincing. Jay is yet to nail down a consistent place in the starting XI and Tom Hopper’s finishing has left a lot to be desired. However, like Garner, their start does not necessarily mean they were bad additions; Jay scored 16 goals as Exeter won promotion last season and Hopper lined up in the League One play off final for Lincoln as recently as 2021 so the pedigree is there.

Even if the outcome of the recruitment hasn’t improved, the process behind it has and there are other positive signs too. The academy continues to produce talent; Noah Chilvers provides a rare goal threat from midfield and Junior Tchamadeu is already one of the division’s best fullbacks aged just 19. Off the field, Cowling has purchased a state-of-the-art training ground and the creation of the sporting director role implies an intention to develop a more coherent staffing structure.

Ultimately though, results on the pitch are what counts, and they have not been forthcoming. A decade of bad decisions cannot be undone in a year and if the season ends in relegation, the owner will rightly take the bulk of the blame. The consequences would be catastrophic too. In 21-22 the club lost almost £2m and would continue to haemorrhage cash in non-league.

The next five weeks are the most important of Cowling’s ownership and, arguably, Colchester United’s 86-year history. The club are finally in a position where long term gains can be made, but if they don’t escape the drop, the short-term pain will be too great to ever realise them.