2023-24 League One Predictions: Five Takes
1-24 predictions and five big calls ahead of the new season
Bolton Wanderers to win the title
In every season of Ian Evatt’s five-year managerial career he has improved upon his previous league position. If this trend continues, Bolton look well placed to build on their 5th placed finish with a title win.
Last season, the defence was notoriously stingy, with just 36 goals conceded. Wanderers will be without James Trafford following his move to Premier League Burnley, however Nathan Baxter, who proved his worth in the Championship with Hull City back in 2022, is about as good a replacement for the Under-21 Euros winner as it is possible to find in League One.
Wanderers’ weakness came at the other end, as they could only muster 62 goals, 13 fewer than any other top six side. Evatt’s side kept the ball well but whenever they lost the midfield battle, the team looked out of ideas going forward, most notably during May’s playoff defeat to Barnsley.
The signing of Carlos Mendes Gomes should go some way towards solving this issue though. He was touted as a potential arrival back in May and having netted seven times for Fleetwood last season, he is capable of sharing goalscoring duties with Dion Charles. As well as bringing some much-needed flair and threat in the final third, the presence of Mendes Gomes will make Bolton more tactically flexibile too. In Evatt’s 3-4-1-2, he will probably fill the number 10 role, but the Spaniard has also been used up front in the past. He is equally comfortable on the wing too, so if Wanderers are chasing a game, the manager will have the option to move him out wide and bring on a third forward.
The wing-back options are solid too. While it is hard to argue that new signing Josh Dacres-Cogley is a better player than former loanee Conor Bradley, the ex-Tranmere man’s delivery from wide positions is excellent and could be of greater benefit than the direct running down the flanks displayed by the Northern Ireland international. For all their possession, Wanderers registered just 685 crosses last season, fewer than 17 other sides in the division, and with aerial threats such as Jon Dadi Bodvarsson in the squad, this was an under-utilised weapon, so Dacres-Cogley could be the key to unlocking another source of goals.
Now a plan b and plan c are in place, Bolton look more well-rounded coming into this season. This unpredictability, coupled with Evatt’s record of year-on-year improvement, means that Wanderers can be confident of ending their half-decade absence from the Championship in 2024.
Oxford United to reach the playoffs
Oxford are finally on the up again after eighteen months of poor results on the pitch and a lack of strategic thinking off it. By replacing Karl Robinson with Liam Manning, and sealing some impressive deals in the transfer market, the U’s have cemented their position as potential dark horses. Although it is rare for teams at this level to go from being relegation battlers to promotion contenders within twelve months, three consecutive top eight finishes between 2020 and 2022 imply that last season was a mere blip, so Oxford can be bullish about their chances.
The data shows this too; last season the U’s conceded 39 times from open play but registered an expected goals against of just 27. With so few clear-cut chances conceded, the highly-rated James Beadle only needs to register solid but unspectacular performances to be a clear improvement upon Simon Eastwood between the sticks. In front of him, Jordan Thorniley’s return from Blackpool will provide a boost in defence and Josh McEachran is tailor-made for the deep-lying playmaker role under Manning, having worked so well with him at MK Dons.
Among a raft of clever additions, the pick of the summer recruits is Ruben Rodrigues, who will ease the burden of creative responsibility from star man Cameron Brannagan. The prospect of Manning allowing the former Notts County attacker the same freedom he gave Scott Twine at MK is mouth-watering, and if the results are even half as good, Oxford will be far more of a threat going forward than they were in 2022-23.
A left-back remains on the wishlist, as has been the case for the past two or three transfer windows, but the core of a strong team is there and with a budget that will surely allow for strengthening in January, the U’s are in a position to attack what looks like a weaker division than normal.
Barnsley to miss out on the top six
Once the tears from their devastating 123rd minute playoff final defeat to Sheffield Wednesday had dried, Barnsley fans had every reason to be optimistic going into this season. In Michael Duff, they possessed the league’s best manager and with big hitters such as Wednesday, Ipswich and Plymouth Argyle out of the way, the path was clear for the Tykes to seal promotion at the second attempt. Now, with Duff gone and several key players out the door as well, that hope has mostly evaporated.
Mads Andersen was always likely to leave but the departures across the rest of the squad are alarming. Bobby Thomas is now at Coventry and Liam Kitching remains the subject of Championship interest, so it is not inconceivable that none of the back three that performed so well under Duff will still be at the club come the end of the transfer window. In attack, James Norwood’s move to Oldham leaves the Tykes short of a relentless presser and for all of his goals in the National League, it is hard to argue that Andy Dallas is an immediate upgrade. Similarly, goalkeeper Ben Killip will have a tough task living up to the high standards set by Harry Isted last season.
Midfield is the obvious strong point. Herbie Kane, Adam Phillips and particularly Luca Connell all shone last time around, but without Norwood, the forward line may struggle to make the most of their creativity. A lot of pressure will be on Devante Cole to match his career-best 15 goals from last season and Max Watters needs to finally live up to the potential he showed at Crawley Town during the Covid-hit 2020-21 campaign to prevent a drop off in attacking output.
If Neil Collins, who takes over from Duff following five years with the Tampa Bay Rowdies, can lead Barnsley to a second consecutive play off campaign in his first season in EFL management, he will have done a fantastic job. Falling short seems the most probable outcome though.
Fleetwood Town to finish in the top half
Without Andy Pilley, Fleetwood Town would not be an EFL club, so when the chairman was handed a thirteen-year jail sentence in July, most fans began to fear the worst. The Cods’ long term prospects hinge on whether a sale of the club can be agreed, but despite the struggles in the boardoom, the foundations put in place on the pitch last season leave Fleetwood well-placed to be competitive in the upcoming campaign.
Scott Brown displayed some promising signs in his first year in charge, claiming a few scalps against the third tier’s big boys along the way, and the additions made in January are another cause for optimism. In Jayden Stockley and Jack Marriott, the Cods have proven quantities in their forward line, while Junior Quitirna showed a refreshing fearlessness in his few cameo appearances after a January move from Waterford. The three of them will be supplied by the effortlessly creative Danny Mayor, who was offered the chance to remain with Plymouth and would be a Championship player if not for his desire to move back North.
A lot will depend on keeping hold of Brown, who will not be short of admirers if the Cods start well and may be keen on a move to a club with more stability upstairs. However, even if he is lured away, the quality of the squad is still strong and so far there are no indications that a fire sale is imminent. With firepower available to them across the whole of the season and a defence which was reasonably stingy in the last campaign, there is no reason why Fleetwood cannot move up the table even in challenging circumstances.
Exeter City to be relegated to League Two
Exeter are the model of how to run a lower league club. Their finances are stable, managers are always given time to succeed and the academy continually produces great talent.
However, there has been a mass exodus this summer. Josh Key, Kevin McDonald, Archie Collins and Jevani Brown have all moved on, there is currently no sign of Jay Stansfield returning on loan and target man Sam Nombe may still leave before the end of the month. Exeter have dealt admirably with key players departing in the past, but losing much of their core at the same time is a different prospect altogether. Having waved goodbye to Matt Jay and Timothee Dieng in January, there was already a leadership vacuum within the squad, so the club may prove a difficult environment for new recruits Vincent Harper and Reece Cole to make the daunting step up from non-league. The recent relegations of Crewe and Accrington in recent seasons provide a warning that no matter how well-run a club is, replacing the nucleus of a successful team in one summer is an unenviable task.
The problems go beyond the playing squad too. Gary Caldwell did well to steady the ship after Matt Taylor was poached by Rotherham but given his poor managerial record since leaving Wigan in 2016, it is possible that he may have benefited from the foundations his predecessor put in place and that therefore, he could struggle to conduct a rebuild on his own terms. The Grecians’ record of 11 defeats from the final 20 fixtures at the back end of 2022-23 hinted at a downward trajectory and with a less talented group of players to pick from, they could be looking at a return to the fourth tier after just two seasons at this level.
1-24 Predictions
1 Bolton Wanderers
2 Derby County
3 Portsmouth
4 Oxford United
5 Blackpool
6 Charlton Athletic
7 Lincoln City
8 Wycombe Wanderers
9 Peterborough United
10 Barnsley
11 Fleetwood Town
12 Bristol Rovers
13 Wigan Athletic
14 Leyton Orient
15 Burton Albion
16 Stevenage
17 Port Vale
18 Reading
19 Northampton Town
20 Carlisle United
21 Cheltenham Town
22 Shrewsbury Town
23 Exeter City
24 Cambridge United