We attempt to predict the outcome of the Championship’s top 12. You can read our view of the bottom half here.
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1st - Leicester City
Leicester City are down in the Championship just two years after lifting the FA Cup at Wembley, largely due to four consecutive transfer windows of poor recruitment and underinvestment. New manager Enzo Maresca, who assisted Pep Guardiola’s treble winning Man City side last season, will be looking to Vincent Kompany, who quickly implemented a possession-based style at Burnley took the Clarets back to the Premier League at the first attempt.
Convincing Man City to give Callum Doyle another year in the Championship is a smart move and the Foxes’ existing core should thrive too. James Justin, Harry Souttar and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall will probably stick around and Jamie Vardy may see this campaign as one last shot at glory before retirement. Having adapted his game in the past few seasons, the former Stocksbridge forward possesses enough nous to cope without the space in behind opposition backlines that he so expertly exploited against the top Premier League sides.
With a supremely gifted group of players, the biggest obstacle for Leicester will be their own expectations and their permanent summer dealings have only increased the need for a quick return to the top flight. Conor Coady is a coup but £7.5m is a big fee for a 30-year-old and it is hard to argue that Harry Winks, who has struggled for form since 2020, is worth the £10m they have paid. With neither player holding much resale value and the owners’ reluctance to spend big since the pandemic, the club’s financial advantage won’t last long. There is always the risk that this sense of urgency will cloud thinking in the board room, but the Leicester hierarchy have shown their patience with previous managers so Maresca’s job should be safe even if they start slowly.
Cool heads will be required but with the division’s best team on paper, Leicester City’s stay in the Championship should be a short one.
2nd - Sunderland
Before last season, no newly promoted club had even finished in the top half since 2018; Sunderland smashed that glass ceiling by reaching the playoffs. They did so in difficult circumstances too, playing without a recognised striker for much of the campaign after injuries to Ross Stewart and Everton’s recall of Ellis Simms. These fitness issues impacted both ends of the pitch too, with Trai Hume the only recognised defender in the starting line-up in their second leg defeat at Luton.
However, at their best, Sunderland are a scintillating watch. Their third goal at Reading drew international plaudits and the skill and positional fluidity of Jack Clarke, Patrick Roberts and Amad Diallo, who has hinted at a second loan spell, would not look out of place in the Premier League.
Sporting Director Krystjaan Speakman has looked to elite academies abroad to address the lack of depth too. PSV youngster Jenson Seelt will bring a welcome blend of calmness on the ball and physicality at the back and 6ft4in. Luis Semedo, a product of the Benfica youth system will look to provide the focal point the Black Cats so badly missed at points last year, even if another body in that area of the pitch is still needed with Ross Stewart’s future uncertain.
The lack of experience in the squad may seem alarming but in Tony Mowbray, they have a wise old head in the dugout. The potential showed last season despite bad luck with injuries, combined with the proactive movement in the transfer market imply that Sunderland’s upward curve can continue.
3rd - Southampton
Once the model of how to run a medium-sized Premier League club, Saints are back in the EFL for the first time since 2012. Owners Sports Republic heavily invested in youth last summer with mixed results but the experience of Premier League football, even in a poor season, should stand 2022’s recruits in good stead. The purchase of 19-year-old Shea Charles from Man City indicates that they are sticking with this approach despite relegation, and in creative wing-back Ryan Manning, they have added proven Championship talent too.
Pressure on the relegated clubs is always high though and new manager Russell Martin will have a lot to prove. For all of the possession his teams enjoy, he is yet to finish higher than 10th in four seasons of management and with Southampton’s resources, only a serious promotion push will suffice.
His focus on keeping the ball is a stark contrast from the high pressing of Ralph Hassenhuttl and directness of Nathan Jones before him but with ex-Premier League players at his disposal, including graduates of the Man City academy such as Charles and Samuel Edozie, the squad has the technical prowess to ensure that the stylistic transition is less clunky. Goalkeeper Gavin Bazunu should be another beneficiary of Martin’s appointment after a torrid debut campaign and Nathan Tella, who starred in a similarly possession-heavy system on loan at Burnley, is still on the books too.
Even with doubts over Martin and the impact of relegation still lingering, Saints have enough talent already in the building to mount a serious push.
4th - Millwall
Millwall have finished each of the last three seasons in the top twelve but are still yet to break into the top six. Unlike most clubs who overachieve, the Lions are well placed to go again. Their relative success was built on the strength of their collective efforts rather than relying on one or two individual talents. This means that very few of their players will be of interest to clubs in higher divisions, so there is every chance they can make that final leap into the playoffs this time.
Adding long-time target Kevin Nisbet will give them more options in attack, and Joe Bryan’s dead ball delivery will be an asset in a team with aerial threats all over the pitch. Zian Flemming, who possesses Premier League ability, is still a Lion and if they can resist the reported interest from Burnley, Millwall’s squad will be stronger.
The one concern will be whether Rowett can get his players motivated for another playoff push after narrowly missing out yet again, especially in the context of a few murmurings of discontent among fans frustrated at their final day collapse. The intimidating surroundings of the Den were the basis of last season’s good form, so if Rowett can prevent a hangover from the disappointment and the supporters rally around the team, then there is no reason why they cannot break that glass ceiling and stay the course in the top six.
5th - Middlesbrough
With star loanees Cameron Archer, Ryan Giles & Aaron Ramsey all returning to their parent clubs, opposition fans could be forgiven for thinking Middlesbrough should temper their expectations ahead of 2023-24, but Michael Carrick has already shown himself to be a problem solver who should cope better than most with their departures.
Converting Chuba Akpom from a misfiring forward to a prolific goalscorer, occupying the number 10 role in a fluid system alongside Archer and Marcus Forss, showed Carrick’s innovative side. With Martin Payero back after winning a league title with Boca Juniors and new boy Morgan Rogers ready to be thrown into the mix, fans at the Riverside can look forward to some more exciting attacking play from their team.
Akpom could pose a problem for Carrick, however. Although the boss must be given credit for Arsenal youth product’s development, his lack of any real goalscoring form until the age of 27 does raise questions as to whether the form can be sustained. With Archer no longer there to occupy defenders, the new signings will need to do their bit in front of goal to mitigate against any reduction in Akpom’s output. This uncertainty, combined with the lack of depth at full back may stunt Boro’s efforts to climb into the automatic promotion places, but they should be good for another crack at the top six, at least.
6th – Leeds United
It’s been a summer of change at Elland Road. Fans will be hoping that new ownership and the appointment of Daniel Farke will be enough to avert a relegation hangover. Farke’s two league title wins at Norwich suggest he will be an asset but it took him a season to acclimatise in Norfolk.. At present, the squad isn’t particularly suited to his possession-based style either, with many of the pre-2022 signings having been recruited with a view to playing in Marcelo Bielsa’s high-pressing system.
The quality of the squad is unquestionable – any one of Willie Gnonto, Jack Harrison or Luis Sinisterra could be the division’s standout player if they remain in Yorkshire - but it is lacking balance. Although Farke has a plethora of exciting wide options at his disposal, the pool of defenders is much smaller, even with Ethan Ampadu arriving from Chelsea and Charlie Cresswell and Cody Drameh expected to feature following productive Championship loans. Up front is another area where backup is needed, with Patrick Bamford having struggled to maintain fitness since his England call up in September 2021.
If Leeds can use their parachute payments wisely they will be in the promotion chase but given the lack of recruits thus far, they may have to rely on the playoffs for a quick return to the big time, especially if Farke’s philosophy takes time to implement.
7th – Hull City
Hull were draw specialists under Liam Rosenior, with 14 of their 28 matches overseen by the former full-back last season ending in stalemates. The Tigers kept possession well but failed to convert this control into goals; they ranked 19th for shooting accuracy and were held to seven 0-0s.
The fact that Derby were similarly profligate under Rosenior’s management hints at a potential weakness in his coaching and little has been done on the recruitment front to address this. There is hope though, because if Oscar Estupinan can recapture the form and fitness that saw him race to the top of the Championship scoring charts last autumn across a full campaign, that problem can be solved in-house.
Despite the wastefulness, Rosenior’s side were defeated just six times and there is no denying that he established a clear identity in the side during 2022-23, so the decision to make incremental rather than wholesale changes to the squad makes sense. If they are in the playoff hunt come January, the ambitious Turkish owners should be willing to put their hands in their pockets too, so dreams of the top six aren’t totally unrealistic, even if achieving it would require an unlikely nine place jump.
8th – Blackburn Rovers
Despite changing manager last summer, Blackburn blew a commanding lead over the chasing pack to fall out of the playoffs late on once again. Although this hints at a possible weakness in the squad’s mentality, there were plenty of positive signs from Jon Dahl Tomasson, who moulded Rovers into a neat, possession-heavy side during his maiden EFL campaign.
The boss, who won the Allesvenskan with Malmo in 2020 and 2021, has used his knowledge of the Swedish League to bring in wideman and set piece specialist Arnor Sigurdsson off the back of a successful loan with IFK Norkropping. Provided he can adjust to his new surroundings off the field, he should prove to be an upgrade on the inconsistent Ryan Hedges.
Niall Ennis was an unsung hero of Plymouth’s promotion charge with his excellent hold up play and technique and brings an extra dimension to the Rovers attack. There is still a Ben Brereton Diaz-shaped hole in the forward line though and he will be missed, despite his influence on the team having waned since the new year. Rumours of financial cutbacks imply that the funds won’t be there to replace him, which may curb Blackburn’s progress and ultimately force them to settle for another top six near miss.
9th - Coventry City
Coventry have been on a consistent upwards trajectory since the re-appointment of Mark Robins so it will be a big test to see how they react to the setback of May’s playoff defeat. The Sky Blues will have to do so without Viktor Gyokeres but they have received a £20m fee for his services and his replacement Ellis Simms should thrive in a partnership with Matty Godden. At present, Gus Hamer, whose previous ill-discipline no longer overshadows his excellent performance levels, is still around too.
Many of the goals scored by Gyokeres and Hamer came on the counter, after Coventry’s stubborn defence had soaked up opposition pressure. This stinginess may be difficult to repeat without key loanees Luke McNally and Callum Doyle. Ex-Barnsley man Bobby Thomas possesses valuable no-nonsense qualities and arrives from a side equally comfortable without the ball, but is not of the same standard.
Mark Robins has beaten much tougher odds that this; just last summer the Sky Blues were unable to fulfil their home fixtures and didn’t escape the relegation zone until late October, before storming their way up the table to reach Wembley. Regardless, another top half finish in a tougher iteration of the division would be respectable, even if it wouldn’t represent progress on paper.
10th – Bristol City
Bristol City have so far hit the sweet spot this summer, opting for sensible evolution rather than revolution by making four solid additions to a side which finished in midtable last time. Irish international midfielder Jason Knight cost just £1.5m with Derby still in League One and Aberdeen’s Ross McCrorie has set the Robins back only £2m. Rob Dickie is a risk following a poor season but he has the ability to thrive in a fresh environment and Hayden Roberts has potential in spades. The City board were intelligent enough to sanction these deals early in the window, before receiving the windfall from Alex Scott’s probable departure, after which their negotiating position would have been significantly weakened.
These moves also bring down the average age of the squad and with the youth system continuing to produce the goods, the Robins’ should be able to transition away from their recent overreliance on players the wrong side of 30. Tommy Conway will surely build on his 12-goal breakout season and with at least £20m likely to be coming the club’s way in the wake of Premier League interest in his former academy teammate Scott, the funds should be there for a more senior striker to come in and share the goalscoring load.
Manager Nigel Pearson is the biggest question mark. Since arriving at Ashton Gate, things have steadily ticked over but if his acrimonious departures from Leicester and Derby are anything to by, there is always the potential for an implosion under the 59-year-old. Keep things harmonious though and there’s no reason why Bristol City can’t push on.
11th - Swansea City
The Swans have had a busy summer with the Russell Martin saga dragging on for over a month but in Michael Duff they have a manager with more tangible achievements on his CV. Going from a possession-based manager to one whose teams are renowned for their strengths off the ball may bring some teething problems, however Duff’s transition from a low block to high pressing style when moving from Cheltenham to Barnsley last summer suggests a flexibility which may lead him to slowly evolve the style of play rather than revolutionise it.
The fact that so many promising young managers have left South Wales to explore other opportunities is a sign of the board’s great talent identification but also of their reluctance to invest and tie down their star players. Ryan Manning, who offered bundles of creativity to Swans, will be a miss and 19-goal Joel Piroe will surely fancy a move elsewhere, with Southampton and Leicester sniffing around. Josh Key and Jerry Yates will need to settle quickly if they are to match last season’s tenth place.
In the long term, swapping Martin for Duff, and being compensated in the process, is a positive but with the squad having to learn a new way of playing and doing so without some key men, Swans may have to take a small backwards step before moving forwards again.
12th - Birmingham City
John Eustace did well to guide Birmingham to safety on the pitch amid off-field uncertainty in his first season of EFL management and with another year’s worth of experience under his belt should only improve further. With that in mind, as well as news of the American takeover, Blues can finally harbour realistic ambitions of finishing higher than 17th in the table for the first time since 2017.
Smart business was done before the ownership change, such as making Kristian Bielik’s loan move permanent. Right back Ethan Laird’s Autumn 2022 form with QPR was excellent and his drop in performance thereafter is less of a concern given that more experienced players around him struggled too, so to pick up the youngster for 500k could prove to be a steal. Siriki Dembele and Koji Miyoshi will inject some much-needed directness and excitement into a team which has heavily leaned into pragmatism and functionality in recent seasons too.
For Blues, the weakness is up front. Of those still on the books, only Scott Hogan hit more than five league goals last season and although Tyler Roberts adds depth and versatility, he isn’t prolific. If the new owners splash out on a marquee striker to complement the value additions then fans can dream of an outside shot at the playoffs, but for now a comfortable mid-table finish would represent progress.
Top half predictions:
1st - Leicester City
2nd - Sunderland
3rd - Southampton
4th - Millwall
5th - Middlesbrough
6th - Leeds United
7th - Hull City
8th - Blackburn Rovers
9th - Coventry City
10th - Bristol City
11th - Swansea City
12th - Birmingham City